A Return to Reality By Arthur Cooper (c) Copyright 2004 There are real lessons for managers and employees to learn from
behaviour of
stock market over
last few years.
Someone running their own one-man business knows what is important to him as far as his business is concerned. He needs money to live on and he needs money to pay his bills on time. He needs income and cash flow. Until he comes to sell his business it really doesn’t matter to him what its capital value is. What he needs and wants in
immediate is a flow of profits from his business. That is what matters to him.
If he wishes to sell up and retire, or if he wishes to raise money to reinvest in his business, then that is
moment when it is important to know
‘value’ of his business. And it is not what he thinks it is worth, but what
buyer or
bank thinks it is worth.
And how will they decide this? They will look at his books and value
business based on two fundamental elements –
stock of course, and above all
income.
So we come back again to income and
profit that results from that income. There is no other way to truly value a business. This applies to businesses of any size, even
largest of publicly quoted companies. And yet that is not what we have seen in recent years.
In
recent past we have seen stock market prices of publicly listed companies rise and rise to unbelievable heights even when in some cases there are no profits either now or in
foreseeable future.
The public of course has a herd instinct, and in times of large price movements does not want to be left behind, so will buy because everyone else is. In consequence
price goes up beyond a sensible level.
The trouble is that if you have bought shares in a non profit making company you won’t be getting dividends and
only way you will ever realise a gain is by selling
shares. You can hold them as long as you like but as long as there is no profit and no dividend you will be out of pocket.
Knowing this, when think that they have reached their peak you will decide to sell. Unfortunately
chances are that others will too. The mass selling begins. When prices come down
same thing happens as when they went up, only in reverse. They fall beyond
point where they should reasonably be.
And then – eventually – prices settle back to more considered levels. We have seen
beginnings of this recently. Some prices have fallen disastrously. In some cases bad management or fraud has been revealed. Some have fallen in line with
market in general. Others have survived with very little damage to their stock market price. A few actually rose.