What is he talking about? If you think Top 25 Rankings are a great way to handicap football games, let me lend some friendly advice. I have to admit that I would be hard pressed to name more than 20 of
Top 25 teams going into this weekends games and putting them in their order of ranking is a completely different story.Sitting around watching football on Saturday with my Dad, who isn't a degenerate sports junky like most of us, he usually asks who's playing, what
spread is and who do I like. This past week, he asked me where each team was ranked and I couldn't tell him for sure, and that got me to thinking about this weeks handicapping tip.
When it comes to handicapping NCAA football games, a teams ranking in
Top 25 poll (or omission) should have no bearing on your handicapping of
games at all. I liken
Top 25 Rankings to a popularity poll in high school similar to
most likely to succeed from your graduating class. Isn't it ironic when you go back to your class reunion and find out that your classmate who was supposed to be a huge success rarely is. The same thing happens in College Football Rankings.
You are really limiting yourself if you handicap football based on a team's ranking, or include this in your decision making process of whether to play on a team or not. Teams in
Top 25 will obviously not lose as many games, but against
spread (ATS), over
course of a season, Top 25 teams will lose more games than they win because of
lack of line value with favorites. This is what you are concerned about in sports investing, finding winners.
Key elements of handicapping football are line movement, situational handicapping, match-up information and line value.
Line movement is tracking how a line moves throughout
week. College Football lines are up late Sunday afternoon. Movements early in
week are indicative of smart or sharp money. Line movements later in
week (Friday and Saturday morning) are caused in most cases by
Public.
Situational handicapping involves a teams performance
prior week, who is looming on
schedule
next week, a teams history with their opponent from a prior year and home/away records. A team coming off an emotional win
prior week will have a tendency to be flat, especially if they play an inferior opponent. Teams with a rival on
schedule
following week may look past whom they are playing this Saturday. Also, a revenge angle might be in play from a meeting
prior year. Don't concern yourself with revenge angles from games played longer than a season ago. Also, don't discount home field advantage.