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Accountability
Someone has to pay. America has always had a strange relationship with its would-be criminals. They love Bonnie and Clyde, Machine Gun Kelly and more recently John Gotti. Yet seem to loathe Ivan Bosky, Michael Milken and Gordon Gecko. This really goes back to a Robin Hood mentality that it’s okay for
underdog to take from
rich but not okay for
rich to take from
people. This is a lesson that Martha Stewart is learning
hard way (not to say she’s guilty of anything, but if she is…) with her current stock sale imbroglio. At
end of
day it really only becomes an inconvenience for those staying at Club Fed. The key is that
average person on
street needs to feel like there is some fairness in this world. Before getting back into
stock market those whose lives are marked with rules, regulations and spending time in traffic court to fight a ticket must see an equal distribution of justice.
Economy
The economy has to continue to grow. It is unreasonable to think that a transition from a recession to a would-be expansion could happen without a few bumps in
road. Of course with so many things going against
economy that have nothing to do with fundamentals it is hard to figure when
coast will be clear. A company like WorldCom says it may have fibbed to
tune of $4 billion dollars and
confidence in America suffers. That puts additional pressure on
dollar, a greater focus on
rating agencies to be even more aggressive in their downgrading binge. It causes net outflows in funds. It lowers
wealth effect and hampers
economy. Yet
American economy has an iron will. It will be dinked a few more times, but that is what will make
move into expansion that much impressive.
New Thinking
The mindset of
quick payoff has to be eliminated. I don’t think one can be a passive investor anymore. In fact,
same decisiveness that investors are demanding from
system, ratings agencies, brokerage firms, governing bodies and corporations themselves they should apply to their approach at
stock market. In a recent Business Week article it was noted that
turnover in NYSE issue in 1960 was just 12%, last year it was 94%. That means there isn’t always a lot of time to peruse or hesitate. In some ways it is unfortunate that companies aren’t allowed to evolve or reach their goals over a longer period of time. Yet this is
world we now live in and investors have to adjust.
Earnings
Much is made about
market still being over valued based on historic price to earnings ratios. This is because companies have no pricing power and are afraid to force
issue. Moreover there is still
inventory overhang and
fact that some industries are too crowed –back to
modern day baseball theory. Creative destruction and an improving economy are
only things that can make this situation improve. There are other ways to measure
worth of a company beyond
P/E ratio. However, in order to feed into
economy earnings have to be a tributary allow for job creation, research and development spending and an improvement in
wealth effect. The most compelling aspect of better earnings is that investors have to believe in
sincerity of
numbers.

Since 1991, Charles Paynes’ Wall Street Strategies has successfully provided timely and effective equity advice to institutional money managers, retail brokers and individual investors of all types, and has thousands of subscribers from hundreds of brokerage firms. http://www.wstreet.com Wall Street Strategies provides research online, including enhanced services and communication tailored to today’s fast-moving markets.