At this point everyone has weighed in with theories on how to turn
stock market around. Even president Bush has come through with his three reasons
market is in reverse. As I’ve said before his insistence that
market is down in part to
treat of terrorism is a big mistake. It actually gives
Osamas of
world more power and
ability to achieve their goals without implementing actual transgressions. I'm going to outline a series of events listed in order that they have to occur that may have to happen before
market can sustain a rally. They are trust, accountability, economy, new thinking and earnings.
Trust: A Matter of Mea Culpa, Hara-kiri, and Open Kimonos
Mea Culpa
I think
biggest problem with
misdeeds of corporate titans that have been caught in
cookie jar is that none have come clean. It would be very refreshing if one would step forward and say he/she just let it get out of hand. However,
mea culpa isn’t just
necessary from those facing criminal conviction. To a certain degree we all played a role in
market’s demise. The individual investor will have to come to grips with
fact they threw caution, common sense and discipline to
wind. Most investors are blaming their brokers, but at
end of
day free will plays a role.
Then I’d love
media to admit they played a role. CNBC in particular has spent
last year and half acting like they weren’t part of
hype. They don’t want to admit they were
carnival barker, not just reporting on
events inside
tent.
Next there are
brokerage firms themselves that already were working in a Catch-22, as they had to answer to two masters;
individual client and
corporate client. Now they had to fend off
threat of
Internet, which became a Borg-like creature that changed
rules of Wall Street. In effect, it became
great California Gold Rush.
It isn’t about getting preachy, but we all say we messed up, I think we’ll all be back on track mentally. The dream of quick riches has been wiped out, but
dream of making money in
stock market is still intact.
Hara-kiri
In addition to coming clean some folks are going to have to go an extra step. I would say that not all of
CEOs that have failed shareholders did so with selfish greed and malicious intent.
The bottom line is that they probably have to be replaced. Not because they can’t learn from their mistakes, but because
underlying share prices will never recover, as question marks and doubt will always haunt them.
This brings up another dilemma,
thin talent pool. As
public rightfully screams for
beheading of CEOs and dismantling of too friendly boards few are considering their replacements. If you think baseball has been yielding too many homers in part to a thin talent pool, just imagine trying to field a thousand of so publicly traded companies? Developing a big-time CEO is harder than finding a person that can pitch a 100-miles an hour, plus steroids really don’t do much for
decision-making process of a corporate executive.
Open Kimonos
Obviously transparency is necessary going forward. Still this can be yet another tricky situation. From a broad perspective
greater
transparency of corporate America
better
quality of all things associated with
economic system. Not just
honesty of reporting but also of
end products. Consumers have been demanding such quality for a long time and they have been answered. Now shareholders will demand
same transparency that a car buyer wants to avoid buying lemons.