The Hedge Fund Headache By William CateHedge Funds are dangerous. They play with
D-bomb and Hedge Fund managers don't know what they are doing. They are like children playing with a landmine in a sandbox. It's fun and exciting until
darn thing goes off. A D-bomb explosion would have
same impact on
global financial market, as an H-bomb would have denoted over Salt Lake City. The result would be a multi-century wasteland after
explosion. A D-bomb explosion means that our Civilization will be facing a new multi-century Dark Age.
The D-bomb is
Derivatives Market. In theory, derivatives are balanced risk investments that allow Hedge Funds, banks, insurance companies and others to profit from
spread created by
bet. The three design problems with D-bombs are that
risk is usually an either or option that doesn't factor in a third alternative. Many bundled derivatives have components that don't represent outside financial instruments that might have value after a D-bomb explosion. The Derivatives Market represents about forty times
total value of all world currencies combined. If
D-bomb goes off, all world currencies would be worthless about forty times over. There simply isn't enough money to cover a D-bomb meltdown.
In simple terms, a derivative is merely a bet. And it can be a bet on anything: interest rates, exchange rates, stocks, commodities, etc.Find a counter-party willing to wager against you, and you havecreated a derivative. And to make
bet you usually only have to put downa small fraction of
bet amount. However, if their bet explodes,
Hedge Fund must cover
leveraged amount of their bets. It's this coverage requirement for dangerous bets that puts
global financial market at risk. The D-bomb risk/reward ratio doesn't make sense to anyone who understands it.
Consider Long Term Capital Management. In 1998, it was
largest Hedge Fund in
world. It's derivatives shenanigans almost triggered
collapse of
entire global financial system. It careened to
brink of failure and would have gone under if
U.S. Government had not organized an emergency bailout. That bailout took
taxpayers of twenty countries to cut
timer to D-bomb denotation. And, Long Term Capital Management wasn't even an American Hedge Fund.
The global derivatives market is around $272 trillion, according to
recent figures from
Bank of International Settlements. And three big American banks' JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Citicorp - account for $77.6 trillion of
money being bet.
European banks are at risk for over $100 trillion and are
global center for D-bomb development. However, America is racing to close
D-bomb gap. Because they aren't regulated like banks, U.S. Hedge Funds are on
cutting edge of D-bomb development. American Hedge Funds manage over one trillion dollars, up from thirty nine billion in 1990. In
first quarter of 2005, wealthy investors added twenty seven billion dollars to
capital of Hedge Funds. These Funds are borrowing billions of dollars from major brokerage firms and others. With
help of Hedge Funds, America is closing
D- bomb development gap. A small bad bet can easily bring down
largest financial institution. Hedge Fund trading may account for up to 50% of
trading volume on
NYSE. A few bad bets would collapse
Dow Industrial Average. Because there are no reporting requirements, nobody knows how well or badly Hedge Funds are doing. However, I've never met a Hedge Fund manager who wasn't seeking new blood for their operations. If they were doing so well, they wouldn't need a constant influx of new capital.