I have researched some statistics that will give you more chance of finding that winning horse racing bet, or more importantly avoiding a losing one. I have tried to look at some more unusual angles, that people may not be so aware of. I have used data from 1986 to 2002 : 1. The sex of a horse makes a difference when carrying a penalty. Colts and geldings have a far superior record to fillies and mares.
Colts / geldings when carrying a penalty - 1523 wins from 7672 runners. Strike rate 19.9% for a small loss on investment of 3.8%.
Fillies / mares when carrying a penalty - 510 wins from 2981 runners. Strike rate 17.1% for a much bigger loss on investment of 16.8%.
2. Horses blinkered for first time are known to be poor investments. However, these investments get worse older horse.
2 year olds blinkered for first time - 213 wins from 3468 runners. Strike rate 6.1% for a loss of 44.6%.
5 year olds or older blinkered for first time - 54 wins from 1356 runners. Strike rate 4.0% for a loss of 54.8%.
3. Races with no last time out winners are less competitive than those with 5 or more last time out winners.
This fact looks logical, but do people take this into account when betting?
Backing favourite in a race with no last time out winners gave following results - Strike rate 29.1% for a loss of only 8.2%.
Backing favourite in a race with 5 or more last time out winners gave following results - Strike rat 21.5% for a loss of over 17%.
4. Horses that are forecast favourites do considerably better if they actually start as favourite.
Horses that are forecast favourite and are favourite at off (favourite at SP) win 34.8% of their races.
Horses that are forecast favourite and are not favourite at off win only 18.2% of their races.