Denial is a ubiquitous psychological defense mechanism. It involves
repression of bad news, unpleasant information, and anxiety-inducing experiences. Judging by
German press,
country is in a state of denial regarding
waning health of its economy and
dwindling fortunes of its financial system.Commerzbank, Germany's fourth largest lender, saw its shares decimated by more than 80 percent to a 19-year low, having increased its loan-loss provisions to cover flood-submerged east German debts. Faced with a precipitous drop in net profit, it reacted reflexively by sacking yet more staff. The shares of many other German banks trade below book value.
Dresdner Bank - Germany's third largest private establishment - already trimmed an unprecedented one fifth of its workforce this year alone. Other leading German banks - such as Deutsche Bank and Hypovereinsbank - resorted to panic selling of equity portfolios, real-estate, non-core activities, and securitized assets to patch up their ailing income statements. Deutsche Bank, for instance, unloaded its US leasing and custody businesses.
On September 19, Moody's changed its outlook for Germany's largest banks from "stable" to "negative". In a scathing remark, it said:
"The rating agency stated several times already that current difficult economic conditions that are hurting
banking business in Germany come on top of
legacy of past strategies that were less focused on strengthening
banks' recurring earning power. Indeed,
German private-sector banks, as a group, remain among
lowest-performing large European banks."
Last week, Fitch Ratings,
international agency, followed suit and downgraded
long-term , short- term, and individual ratings of Dresdner Bank and of Bayerische Hypo- und Vereinsbank (HVB).
These were only
last in a series of negative outlooks pertaining to German insurers and banks. It is ironic that Fitch cited
"bear equity markets (that) have taken their toll not only on trading results but also on sales to private customers,
fund management business and on corporate finance."
Germans used to be immune to
stock exchange and its lures until they were caught in
frenzied global equities bubble. Moody's observes wryly that "a material and stable retail franchise in its home market, even if more modestly profitable, can and does represent a reliable line of defence against temporary difficulties in financial and wholesale markets."
The technology-laden and scandal-ridden Neuer Markt - Europe's answer to America's NASDAQ - as well as
SMAX exchange for small-caps were shut down last week,
former having lost a staggering 96 percent of its value since March 2000. This compared to Britain's AIM, which lost "only" half its worth. Even Britain's infamous FTSE-TechMARK faded by a "mere" 88 percent.
Only 1 company floated on
Neuer Markt this year - compared to more than 130 two years ago. In an unprecedented show of "no-confidence", more than 40 companies withdrew their listings last year. The Duetsche Boerse promised to create two new classes of shares on
Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It belatedly vowed to introduce more transparency and openness to foreign investors.
Banks have been accused by irate customers of helping to list inappropriate firms and providing fraudulent advisory services. Court cases are pending against
likes of Commerzbank. These proceedings may dash
bank's hopes to move from retail into private banking.
To further compound matters, Germany is in
throes of a tsunami of corporate insolvencies. This long-overdue restructuring, though beneficial in
long run, couldn't have transpired at a worse time, as far as
banks go. Massive provisions and write-downs have voraciously consumed their capital base even as operating profits have plummeted. This double whammy more than eroded
benefits of their painful cost-cutting measures.
German banks - not unlike Japanese ones - maintain incestuous relationships with their clients. When it finally collapsed in April, Philip Holzmann AG owed billions to Deutsche Bank with whom it had a cordial working relationship for more than a century. But
bank also owned 19.6 percent of
ailing construction behemoth and chaired its supervisory board -
relics of previous shambolic rescue packages.
Germany competes with Austria in over-branching, with Japan in souring assets, and with Russia in overhead. According to
German daily, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,
cost to income ratio of German banks is 90 percent. Mass bankruptcies and consolidation - voluntary or enforced - are unavoidable, especially in
cooperative, mortgage, and savings banks sectors, concludes
paper. The process is a decade-old. More than 1500 banks vanished from
German landscape in this period. Another 2500 remain making Germany still one of
most over-banked countries in
world.
Moody's don't put much stock in
cost-cutting measures of
German banks. Added competition and a "more realistic pricing" of loans and services are far more important to their shriveling bottom line. But "that light is not yet visible at
end of
tunnel ... and challenging market conditions are likely to persist for
time being."