This article collects our thoughts about new trends in
travel industry and tourism markets, especially with regard to sustainable tourism. This is not meant to be an exhaustive list, and is quite general. These trends are included as an overview, a synthesis of our readings and experience, and should not be taken as results of our formal research. They are based in part upon research results of other organizations. We plan to update and refine these thoughts throughout year. If you have comments or questions, or you are interested in Leave Home's travel marketing consulting services, please visit www.Leave-Home.com or contact author directly. Overview Leave Home sees significant realignments in tourism decision patterns and roles within industry, as a result of global economic, political, and social changes and impact of new communications technologies. As in some other sectors of society, these technologies appear to be encourage a greater decentralization of distribution, greater individual access to choice and information, and a realignment of roles for tourism intermediaries. We recognize major opportunities for tourism industry participants who provide value as "experts", respond to demand for individualized service, fulfill higher level needs and aspirations of tourists ("fulfillment", "self-actualization", "individuality"), and remain flexible and responsive to change. We find sustainable tourism projects and products especially well poised to take advantage of these changes, to provide unique value to tourists, and to spread benefits of responsible tourism to new areas and a wider segment of host populations. Tourism, global security and economic picture
Overall, tourism expenditures and international arrivals began recovering in last half of 2003 and appear to be continuing this trend in 2004. The World Tourism Organization (WTO) organized a panel of 180 tourism experts, whose survey results about promise of 2004 in terms of tourism industry recovery are markedly optimistic. Continued global instability should give caution to long-term prognostication, however.
The WTO reported a 2% drop in worldwide international tourism receipts (in inflation-adjusted, weighted local currencies) in 2003. Major factors in this decline were continuing results of September 11, 2001 attacks in USA, Asian SARS outbreak, Bali bombing, war in Iraq, and global economic recession. Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania fared worst, with North America, Africa, and Europe also showing losses. The Carribean, Central and South America, and Middle East (!), showed gains during 2003. These findings are included in WTO's second trimester 2004 Barometer publication (An excerpt is freely available from their website at http://www.world-tourism.org/market_research/facts/barometer.htm. The full first trimester edition is available for free download, as well).
Security and economic concerns are still significant factors affecting travel decisions; globally and across demographic sectors. Continued currency value realignment (particularly reduced value of US dollar against Euro) will continue to shape consumer and industry spending decisions. Tourists, overall, are not curtailing their travel, so much as spending less (tourism receipts have decreased more than have number of international arrivals), and staying closer to home. This has led to an increase in regional and local tourism. Regional budget airline growth is also fueling this trend (The continued viability of their business models remains to be seen, however).
Major new outbound markets are developing in China, India, Russia and other ex-Soviet countries, and to a lesser extent, Middle East, as a result of economic and social changes in these countries. The Asian markets among these are tending to produce mostly regional travel demand, which should help Asian tourism rebound from losses in previous years. New pressures and new roles
The global security and economic situation remains volatile, and rapid technological innovation looks to remain norm. Wider availability of new communications technologies will change tourism markets in ways we have not yet imagined. Flexibility, diversification, and decentralization seem certain to become more important for survival and success of tourism organizations and tourism-based economies.
Internet travel purchases (now largest amount of all online purchases) and airline competition have led to a downward pressure on prices and slimmer profit margins for tour operators, travel agents, and throughout much of industry; in general, leading to necessary realignments within industry.
More competing tourism products, decreased customer loyalty, and increases in last-minute booking present challenges to tourism organizations. They will need to work harder to differentiate their products and services, help tourists sort through "information clutter", engender trust and loyalty, and maintain stable revenue flows.
Smart marketers appear capable of countering above trends and displacing price's centrality in purchase decisions for some types of travel products. More sophisticated uses of these new communication technologies, such as Internet-enabled customer relationship management tools and email marketing campaigns, would allow for more selective marketing and distribution strategies to attract highly desirable tourists.
Internet and other new communications tools are displacing some tourism intermediaries and redefining roles of others. Tourism product suppliers are less reliant on traditional distribution intermediaries, and consumers are more willing to make their own travel arrangements. The WTO notes that current emphasis on regional travel is also producing less group travel and more individual travel (people feel more confident to make their own arrangements, when destinations are more familiar).
