The Economics of Real Deals vs Selling Smoke & Mirrors By William Cate Published September 1999 [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]If you want to make real money in
Market, you don't want to follow
Pump & Dump (P&D) crowd's approach to
OTCBB. Promoting your Smoke & Mirrors (S&M) stock and selling your shares into
Market isn't very profitable.
Let's assume that you spent a million dollars to take public a Smoke & Mirrors company on
OTCBB. You have four million insider shares. You raised $500,000 by doing an IPO at $0.50/share. Thus,
S&M company has 5 million shares issued. This is about
limit of shares workable for any OTCBB company.
You wait one year, spending your IPO money on your salary etc. Your 4 million shares are now free-trading. Because
SEC rarely enforces
Insider Trading Rules, you intend to ignore them. You're ready to do your first small P&D. Your target share price is $3.00/share. You expect to sell your insider shares on average at $1.50/share.
It'll cost money and stock to do
stock promotion. We'll assume that you'll have to trade your S&M float (create 5 million shares of buying) to generate a $3/share price for your S&M company. If we apply
Florida formula to creating 5 million shares of stock at an average price of $1.50,
dollar cost to you will be about $750,000. The Florida formula assumes that your P&D group knows what its doing. You'll have to give away some of your stock to stock brokers, investor relations firms, and others. If you know what you are doing, you'll give away less than 1 million shares. Whatever stock you give away will be sold into your P&D. Let's assume that for this small P&D, it's 500,000 shares.
Public investors on
OTCBB are speculators. It's
only way they can make money. You must assume that your one million-share float will be sold into your stock promotion. This means that 1.5 million shares (remember
500,000 shares you paid to create buying?) of
S&M selling won't benefit you.
Your next problem is that there are an array of Market Professionals that include Market Makers and stock professionals such as myself that will easily spot your P&D in it's formation stage. We'll buy your stock cheap and sell it high. We'll be at least two million shares of your selling. The Rule of Thumb is that small P&D sellers dump about 25% of
volume. (In a major P&Ds insiders can do up to 40% of
dumping. and they get
money from
Private Placements they arranged during their P&D.) In our example, you'll have sold 1,250,000 S&M shares at an average price of $1.50. You will have grossed $1,875,000. Deduct your $750,000 cost and you appear to net $1,100,000. Keep in mind that many P&Ds lose money for
promoters. However, in our example you are a winner.
The SEC may not rigorously enforce
Insider Trading Rules. They only respond to public complaints in about 10% of
P&D cases. However, they respond to nearly 100% of
P&D's whose share price collapses. Thus, you must support your P&D share price as it slowly collapses below one dollar.
Your problem is those Market Professionals and brokers who took most of your P&D profit on
way up are now selling short your stock. You must use your $1,100,000 to buy some of their short sales. You'll do it by trying to get public shareholders to keep their stock. You'll do it by promoting your stock into
short selling. In
end, you'll spend about $900,000 of your profit defending your share price on
way down. The Rule of Thumb is that in
usual small stock promotion,
P&D insiders make about $150,000 to $200,000. You can usually do about three P&Ds on most S&M companies, before you can't find more pigeons for
next P&D in that company.