Tulipmania - this is
name coined for
first pyramid investment scheme in history.In 1634, tulip bulbs were traded in a special exchange in Amsterdam. People used these bulbs as means of exchange and value store. They traded them and speculated in them. The rare black tulip bulbs were as valuable as a big mansion house. The craze lasted four years and it seemed that it would last forever. But this was not to be.
The bubble burst in 1637. In a matter of a few days,
price of tulip bulbs was slashed by 96%!
This specific pyramid investment scheme was somewhat different from
ones which were to follow it in human financial history elsewhere in
world. It had no "organizing committee", no identifiable group of movers and shakers, which controlled and directed it. Also, no explicit promises were ever made concerning
profits which
investors could expect from participating in
scheme - or even that profits were forthcoming to them.
Since then, pyramid schemes have evolved into intricate psychological ploys.
Modern ones have a few characteristics in common:
First, they involve ever growing numbers of people. They mushroom exponentially into proportions that usually threaten
national economy and
very fabric of society. All of them have grave political and social implications.
Hundreds of thousands of investors (in a population of less than 3.5 million souls) were deeply enmeshed in
1983 banking crisis in Israel.
This was a classic pyramid scheme:
banks offered their own shares for sale, promising investors that
price of
shares will only go up (sometimes by 2% daily). The banks used depositors' money, their capital, their profits and money that they borrowed abroad to keep this impossible and unhealthy promise. Everyone knew what was going on and everyone was involved.
The Ministers of Finance,
Governors of
Central Bank assisted
banks in these criminal pursuits. This specific pyramid scheme - arguably,
longest in history - lasted 7 years.
On one day in October 1983, ALL
banks in Israel collapsed. The government faced such civil unrest that it was forced to compensate shareholders through an elaborate share buyback plan which lasted 9 years. The total indirect damage is hard to evaluate, but
direct damage amounted to 6 billion USD.
This specific incident highlights another important attribute of pyramid schemes: investors are promised impossibly high yields, either by way of profits or by way of interest paid. Such yields cannot be derived from
proper investment of
funds - so,
organizers resort to dirty tricks.
They use new money, invested by new investors - to pay off
old investors.
The religion of Islam forbids lenders to charge interest on
credits that they provide. This prohibition is problematic in modern day life and could bring modern finance to a complete halt.
It was against this backdrop, that a few entrepreneurs and religious figures in Egypt and in Pakistan established what they called: "Islamic banks". These banks refrained from either paying interest to depositors - or from charging their clients interest on
loans that they doled out. Instead, they have made their depositors partners in fictitious profits - and have charged their clients for fictitious losses. All would have been well had
Islamic banks stuck to healthier business practices.
But they offer impossibly high "profits" and ended
way every pyramid ends: they collapsed and dragged economies and political establishments with them.
The latest example of
price paid by whole nations due to failed pyramid schemes is, of course, Albania 1997. One third of
population was heavily involved in a series of heavily leveraged investment plans which collapsed almost simultaneously. Inept political and financial crisis management led Albania to
verge of disintegration into civil war.
But why must pyramid schemes fail? Why can't they continue forever, riding on
back of new money and keeping every investor happy, new and old?
The reason is that
number of new investors - and, therefore,
amount of new money available to
pyramid's organizers - is limited. There are just so many risk takers. The day of judgement is heralded by an ominous mismatch between overblown obligations and
trickling down of new money. When there is no more money available to pay off
old investors, panic ensues. Everyone wants to draw money at
same time. This, evidently, is never possible - some of
money is usually invested in real estate or was provided as a loan. Even
most stable and healthiest financial institutions never put aside more than 10% of
money deposited with them.
Thus, pyramids are doomed to collapse.
But, then, most of
investors in pyramids know that pyramids are scams, not schemes. They stand warned by
collapse of other pyramid schemes, sometimes in
same place and at
same time. Still, they are attracted again and again as butterflies are to
fire and with
same results.
The reason is as old as human psychology: greed, avarice. The organizers promise
investors two things:
That they could draw their money anytime that they want to, and That in
meantime, they will be able to continue to receive high returns on their money. People know that this is highly improbable and that
likelihood that they will lose all or part of their money grows with time. But they convince themselves that
high profits or interest payments that they will be able to collect before
pyramid collapses - will more than amply compensate them for
loss of their money. Some of them, hope to succeed in drawing
money before
imminent collapse, based on "warning signs". In other words,
investors believe that they can outwit
organizers of
pyramid. The investors collaborate with
organizers on
psychological level: cheated and deceiver engage in a delicate ballet leading to their mutual downfall.
This is undeniably
most dangerous of all types of financial scandals. It insidiously pervades
very fabric of human interactions. It distorts economic decisions and it ends in misery on a national scale. It is
scourge of societies in transition.