Stock Market Consolidation By William Cate Published November 1999 [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/] The National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) has a vision. They see two North American Markets by 2010. They see
New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as
"traditional" Market. The NASD expects to own everything else. They'll be
Market of Cyberspace. Since they operate Nasdaq,
second largest market in
States, their vision isn't wishful thinking.
The NASD has acquired
American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and
Philadelphia Stock Exchange. They are trying to acquire
remaining regional American Stock Exchanges. They intend to include
Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) in their vision.
The NASD will sell
Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) in
next five years. The reason is
NASD's reputation is at risk from unethical OTCBB trading. And
OTCBB, like
Western Canadian Stock Exchanges, will face growing competition from Cyberspace.
The NYSE wants to expand. They are considering taking
NYSE public to raise money to compete with
NASD in Cyberspace. I suspect they will be competitive bidders for
remaining American regional Stock Exchanges and
TSE. The NYSE sales pitch will stress status.
I doubt
merger of
Vancouver, Alberta and Winnipeg Stock Exchanges will work. Along with
Canadian Dealers Network in Ontario, Canada's risk capital markets will be history within
next twenty years. Also, I suspect that
Montreal Stock Exchange will disappear by 2020. The reasons for failure involve
credibility of these markets combined with increased competition from Cyberspace.
The Frankfurt (German) Stock Exchange (GSE) has a NASD vision for Europe. It sees
International (London) Stock Exchange (ISE) as
traditional market in
21st Century. The Germans intend to consolidate everything else. The German Stock Exchange's problem is overcoming national sensibilities in Europe.
The end game for
NASD and GSE would be
merger of their networks around 2015. They would leave
NYSE and ISE as backwater "traditional markets." It will take at least an additional ten years for
NASD and GSE to merge. If it happens, it will occur after 2020.
Recent history suggests that
Asian markets will move to consolidate. The Europeans created their Union. The North Americans followed with NAFTA. The Asians were forced to create ASEAN. The American and European Stock Market integration will force Asian Stock Markets to consolidate.