Stock Market Consolidation By William Cate Published November 1999 [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/] The National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD) has a vision. They see two North American Markets by 2010. They see New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as "traditional" Market. The NASD expects to own everything else. They'll be Market of Cyberspace. Since they operate Nasdaq, second largest market in States, their vision isn't wishful thinking.
The NASD has acquired American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and Philadelphia Stock Exchange. They are trying to acquire remaining regional American Stock Exchanges. They intend to include Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE) in their vision.
The NASD will sell Over-the-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) in next five years. The reason is NASD's reputation is at risk from unethical OTCBB trading. And OTCBB, like Western Canadian Stock Exchanges, will face growing competition from Cyberspace.
The NYSE wants to expand. They are considering taking NYSE public to raise money to compete with NASD in Cyberspace. I suspect they will be competitive bidders for remaining American regional Stock Exchanges and TSE. The NYSE sales pitch will stress status.
I doubt merger of Vancouver, Alberta and Winnipeg Stock Exchanges will work. Along with Canadian Dealers Network in Ontario, Canada's risk capital markets will be history within next twenty years. Also, I suspect that Montreal Stock Exchange will disappear by 2020. The reasons for failure involve credibility of these markets combined with increased competition from Cyberspace.
The Frankfurt (German) Stock Exchange (GSE) has a NASD vision for Europe. It sees International (London) Stock Exchange (ISE) as traditional market in 21st Century. The Germans intend to consolidate everything else. The German Stock Exchange's problem is overcoming national sensibilities in Europe.
The end game for NASD and GSE would be merger of their networks around 2015. They would leave NYSE and ISE as backwater "traditional markets." It will take at least an additional ten years for NASD and GSE to merge. If it happens, it will occur after 2020.
Recent history suggests that Asian markets will move to consolidate. The Europeans created their Union. The North Americans followed with NAFTA. The Asians were forced to create ASEAN. The American and European Stock Market integration will force Asian Stock Markets to consolidate.