Is Dot Com Dead? By William Cate Published May 1999 [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]A public company's share price relies on perception, not fundamentals. Investors buy sizzle and not steak. It's reason stock promotion works. Perception can be manipulated.
Investors are lemmings. In 16th Century, they invested in tulips. In 1970's, it was gold mines. Until recently, it's been Internet. The cliff lemmings rush over is fundamentals. Most investors don't believe axiom that a business that isn't making money can't survive.
Tulip Mania, Mining Mania or Dot Com Mania follows same road to investor loss. There's an event that catches media's interest. In case of Mining Mania, it was collapse of Bretton Woods Agreement in 1972. France forced United States to float gold price against dollar. This created a platoon of "gold bug" gurus. The profit wasn't in telling lemmings that gold price was going up. The gurus made their money telling investors to buy gold mining stocks. The gurus got their stock free for promoting mining company and sold into buying they created. Mining stock centers like Vancouver, Denver and Salt Lake City boomed.
It doesn't benefit U. S. economy, nor any Western Government, to allow gold to appear safer than U. S. Dollar. After 1980, Western Governments moved to undermine gold [http://www.metropolecafe.com] as an alternative to paper currencies. The declining gold price ended Mining Mania.
The gold bug gurus mining argument was illogical. They argued that investors should not trust U. S. Dollar because it was a worthless paper (fiat) currency. However, investors should trust worthless paper stock certificates because they represented potential to produce gold.
Gold mining sank on three realities. The gold price never moved high enough to offset post World War II inflation. The Environmental Movement imposed massive additional costs on mining, especially in United States. Most profitable gold deposits had been mined before 1972. Without prospect of profit, potential of gold in ground was worthless. Mining Mania ended with loss of billions of investor dollars.
The creation of Internet is one of major technological events of 20th Century. It's empowered individual and contributed to fall of Soviet Union. In next Century, computer literacy will determine social class and widen gulf between between wealthy and developing countries. Keep in mind that expanding world population means increased demand for finite resources. The Net doesn't produce food, shelter or clothing. But, media focus on Net is justified.
The Net isn't a means of production. It's a means of distribution of goods and services. You can sell books on Net, without renting a bookstore. I can sell my financial consulting services with this newsletter, without paying for printing and postage. In theory, these savings should translate into greater profits.