OPEC's Swan Song?Written by Sam Vaknin
Indonesia's Energy Minister, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, is unhappy with modest production cut, from June 1, of 2 million barrels per day, adopted by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week. He intends to demand further reductions at June 11 get-together in Qatar.The deal struck is so convoluted and loopholed that actual output declines may amount to no more than 600,000 bpd, assuming, miraculously, full compliance. Quotas were first raised before war to 27.4 million bpd - a theoretical level, not met by actual supply. Crude prices, entering a period of seasonal weakening, dropped further on news. With Nigerian and Venezuelan crude recovering from months of strife, this downtrend may be temporary. Global excess capacity is a mere 1 million bpd - one fifth its prewar level. As North American and North Sea production declines, importance of Gulf producers soars. OPEC's eleven countries - Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq (suspended in 1990, following its invasion of Kuwait), Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela - control one third to two fifths of global oil output and three quarters of far more important residual demand - traded between net consumers and net exporters. Residual demand is set to double by 2010. Still, OPEC - led by Saudi Arabia, now off US buddy list - faces fundamental problems that no tweaking can resolve. Iraq, in throes of reconstruction and under America's thumb, may opt to exit club it has founded in 1960 and, thus unfettered, flood market with its 2.3 to 2.8 million bpd of oil. Iraqi production can reach 7-8 million bpd in six years, completely upsetting carefully balanced market sharing agreements among OPEC members. This nightmare may be years away, what with Iraq's dilapidated and much-looted infrastructure and vehement international wrangling over past and future contracts. All same, it looms menacing over organization's future. Far more ominous perils lurk in Russia, second largest oil producer and growing. Though cheapest and most abundant reserves are still to be found in Persian Gulf, Central Asia and Russia are catching up fast. Ali al-Naimi, Saudi oil minister may be forced out of office by this apparent crumbling of organization's stature. This would be unwise. Naimi is widely credited with engineering tripling of oil prices to more than $30 a barrel between 1998 and 1999. As informal boss of state-owned Saudi oil behemoth, Aramco, he has already introduced postwar output cuts. The oil market is so volatile that even marginal production shifts affect prices disproportionately. Naimi is a master of such manipulation.
| | Corruption and Transparency - Part IWritten by Sam Vaknin
I. The FactsJust days before a much-awaited donor conference, influential International Crisis Group (ICG) recommended to place all funds pledged to Macedonia under oversight of a "corruption advisor" appointed by European Commission. The donors ignored this and other recommendations. To appease critics, affable Attorney General of Macedonia charged a former Minister of Defense with abuse of duty for allegedly having channeled millions of DM to his relatives during recent civil war. Macedonia has belatedly passed an anti-money laundering law recently - but failed, yet again, to adopt strict anti-corruption legislation. In Albania, Chairman of Albanian Socialist Party, Fatos Nano, was accused by Albanian media of laundering $1 billion through Albanian government. Pavel Borodin, former chief of Kremlin Property, decided not appeal his money laundering conviction in a Swiss court. The Slovak daily "Sme" described in scathing detail newly acquired wealth and lavish lifestyles of formerly impoverished HZDS politicians. Some of them now reside in refurbished castles. Others have swimming pools replete with wine bars. Pavlo Lazarenko, a former Ukrainian prime minister, is detained in San Francisco on money laundering charges. His defense team accuses US authorities of "selective prosecution". They are quoted by Radio Free Europe as saying: "The impetus for this prosecution comes from allegations made by Kuchma regime, which itself is corrupt and dedicated to using undemocratic and repressive methods to stifle political opposition ... (other Ukrainian officials) including Kuchma himself and his closest associates, have committed conduct similar to that with which Lazarenko is charged but have not been prosecuted by U.S. government". The UNDP estimated, in 1997, that, even in rich, industrialized, countries, 15% of all firms had to pay bribes. The figure rises to 40% in Asia and 60% in Russia. Corruption is rife and all pervasive, though many allegations are nothing but political mud-slinging. Luckily, in countries like Macedonia, it is confined to its rapacious elites: its politicians, managers, university professors, medical doctors, judges, journalists, and top bureaucrats. The police and customs are hopelessly compromised. Yet, one rarely comes across graft and venality in daily life. There are no false detentions (as in Russia), spurious traffic tickets (as in Latin America), or widespread stealthy payments for public goods and services (as in Africa). It is widely accepted that corruption retards growth by deterring foreign investment and encouraging brain drain. It leads to misallocation of economic resources and distorts competition. It depletes affected country's endowments - both natural and acquired. It demolishes tenuous trust between citizen and state. It casts civil and government institutions in doubt, tarnishes entire political class, and, thus, endangers democratic system and rule of law, property rights included. This is why both governments and business show a growing commitment to tackling it. According to Transparency International's "Global Corruption Report 2001", corruption has been successfully contained in private banking and diamond trade, for instance. Hence also involvement of World Bank and IMF in fighting corruption. Both institutions are increasingly concerned with poverty reduction through economic growth and development. The World Bank estimates that corruption reduces growth rate of an affected country by 0.5 to 1 percent annually. Graft amounts to an increase in marginal tax rate and has pernicious effects on inward investment as well. The World Bank has appointed last year a Director of Institutional Integrity - a new department that combines Anti-Corruption and Fraud Investigations Unit and Office of Business Ethics and Integrity. The Bank helps countries to fight corruption by providing them with technical assistance, educational programs, and lending. Anti-corruption projects are an integral part of every Country Assistance Strategy (CAS). The Bank also supports international efforts to reduce corruption by sponsoring conferences and exchange of information. It collaborates closely with Transparency International, for instance. At request of member-governments (such as Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania) it has prepared detailed country corruption surveys covering both public and private sectors. Together with EBRD, it publishes a corruption survey of 3000 firms in 22 transition countries (BEEPS - Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey). It has even set up a multilingual hotline for whistleblowers.
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