OPEC's Swan Song?

Written by Sam Vaknin


Indonesia's Energy Minister, Purnomo Yusgiantoro, is unhappy withrepparttar modest production cut, from June 1, of 2 million barrels per day, adopted byrepparttar 104964 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last week. He intends to demand further reductions atrepparttar 104965 June 11 get-together in Qatar.

The deal struck is so convoluted and loopholed that actual output declines may amount to no more than 600,000 bpd, assuming, miraculously, full compliance. Quotas were first raised beforerepparttar 104966 war to 27.4 million bpd - a theoretical level, not met by actual supply. Crude prices, entering a period of seasonal weakening, dropped further onrepparttar 104967 news.

With Nigerian and Venezuelan crude recovering from months of strife, this downtrend may be temporary. Global excess capacity is a mere 1 million bpd - one fifth its prewar level. As North American and North Sea production declines,repparttar 104968 importance of Gulf producers soars.

OPEC's eleven countries - Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq (suspended in 1990, following its invasion of Kuwait), Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,repparttar 104969 United Arab Emirates and Venezuela - control one third to two fifths of global oil output and three quarters ofrepparttar 104970 far more important residual demand - traded between net consumers and net exporters. Residual demand is set to double by 2010.

Still, OPEC - led by Saudi Arabia, now offrepparttar 104971 US buddy list - faces fundamental problems that no tweaking can resolve. Iraq, inrepparttar 104972 throes of reconstruction and under America's thumb, may opt to exitrepparttar 104973 club it has founded in 1960 and, thus unfettered, floodrepparttar 104974 market with its 2.3 to 2.8 million bpd of oil. Iraqi production can reach 7-8 million bpd in six years, completely upsettingrepparttar 104975 carefully balanced market sharing agreements among OPEC members.

This nightmare may be years away, what with Iraq's dilapidated and much-looted infrastructure and vehement international wrangling over past and future contracts. Allrepparttar 104976 same, it looms menacing overrepparttar 104977 organization's future.

Far more ominous perils lurk in Russia,repparttar 104978 second largest oil producer and growing. Thoughrepparttar 104979 cheapest and most abundant reserves are still to be found inrepparttar 104980 Persian Gulf, Central Asia and Russia are catching up fast. Ali al-Naimi,repparttar 104981 Saudi oil minister may be forced out of office by this apparent crumbling ofrepparttar 104982 organization's stature.

This would be unwise. Naimi is widely credited with engineeringrepparttar 104983 tripling of oil prices to more than $30 a barrel between 1998 and 1999. Asrepparttar 104984 informal boss ofrepparttar 104985 state-owned Saudi oil behemoth, Aramco, he has already introduced postwar output cuts. The oil market is so volatile that even marginal production shifts affect prices disproportionately. Naimi is a master of such manipulation.

Corruption and Transparency - Part I

Written by Sam Vaknin


I. The Facts

Just days before a much-awaited donor conference,repparttar influential International Crisis Group (ICG) recommended to place all funds pledged to Macedonia underrepparttar 104963 oversight of a "corruption advisor" appointed byrepparttar 104964 European Commission. The donors ignored this and other recommendations. To appeaserepparttar 104965 critics,repparttar 104966 affable Attorney General of Macedonia charged a former Minister of Defense with abuse of duty for allegedly having channeled millions of DM to his relatives duringrepparttar 104967 recent civil war. Macedonia has belatedly passed an anti-money laundering law recently - but failed, yet again, to adopt strict anti-corruption legislation.

In Albania,repparttar 104968 Chairman ofrepparttar 104969 Albanian Socialist Party, Fatos Nano, was accused by Albanian media of laundering $1 billion throughrepparttar 104970 Albanian government. Pavel Borodin,repparttar 104971 former chief of Kremlin Property, decided not appeal his money laundering conviction in a Swiss court. The Slovak daily "Sme" described in scathing detailrepparttar 104972 newly acquired wealth and lavish lifestyles of formerly impoverished HZDS politicians. Some of them now reside in refurbished castles. Others have swimming pools replete with wine bars.

Pavlo Lazarenko, a former Ukrainian prime minister, is detained in San Francisco on money laundering charges. His defense team accusesrepparttar 104973 US authorities of "selective prosecution".

They are quoted by Radio Free Europe as saying:

"The impetus for this prosecution comes from allegations made byrepparttar 104974 Kuchma regime, which itself is corrupt and dedicated to using undemocratic and repressive methods to stifle political opposition ... (other Ukrainian officials) including Kuchma himself and his closest associates, have committed conduct similar to that with which Lazarenko is charged but have not been prosecuted byrepparttar 104975 U.S. government".

The UNDP estimated, in 1997, that, even in rich, industrialized, countries, 15% of all firms had to pay bribes. The figure rises to 40% in Asia and 60% in Russia.

Corruption is rife and all pervasive, though many allegations are nothing but political mud-slinging. Luckily, in countries like Macedonia, it is confined to its rapacious elites: its politicians, managers, university professors, medical doctors, judges, journalists, and top bureaucrats. The police and customs are hopelessly compromised. Yet, one rarely comes across graft and venality in daily life. There are no false detentions (as in Russia), spurious traffic tickets (as in Latin America), or widespread stealthy payments for public goods and services (as in Africa).

It is widely accepted that corruption retards growth by deterring foreign investment and encouraging brain drain. It leads torepparttar 104976 misallocation of economic resources and distorts competition. It depletesrepparttar 104977 affected country's endowments - both natural and acquired. It demolishesrepparttar 104978 tenuous trust between citizen and state. It casts civil and government institutions in doubt, tarnishesrepparttar 104979 entire political class, and, thus, endangersrepparttar 104980 democratic system andrepparttar 104981 rule of law, property rights included.

This is why both governments and business show a growing commitment to tackling it. According to Transparency International's "Global Corruption Report 2001", corruption has been successfully contained in private banking andrepparttar 104982 diamond trade, for instance.

Hence alsorepparttar 104983 involvement ofrepparttar 104984 World Bank andrepparttar 104985 IMF in fighting corruption. Both institutions are increasingly concerned with poverty reduction through economic growth and development. The World Bank estimates that corruption reducesrepparttar 104986 growth rate of an affected country by 0.5 to 1 percent annually. Graft amounts to an increase inrepparttar 104987 marginal tax rate and has pernicious effects on inward investment as well.

The World Bank has appointed last year a Director of Institutional Integrity - a new department that combinesrepparttar 104988 Anti-Corruption and Fraud Investigations Unit andrepparttar 104989 Office of Business Ethics and Integrity. The Bank helps countries to fight corruption by providing them with technical assistance, educational programs, and lending.

Anti-corruption projects are an integral part of every Country Assistance Strategy (CAS). The Bank also supports international efforts to reduce corruption by sponsoring conferences andrepparttar 104990 exchange of information. It collaborates closely with Transparency International, for instance.

Atrepparttar 104991 request of member-governments (such as Bosnia-Herzegovina and Romania) it has prepared detailed country corruption surveys covering bothrepparttar 104992 public andrepparttar 104993 private sectors. Together withrepparttar 104994 EBRD, it publishes a corruption survey of 3000 firms in 22 transition countries (BEEPS - Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey). It has even set up a multilingual hotline for whistleblowers.

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