Since this is my last column of
year, I will use this space to give you my trusty predictions for 2005. While none of these are guaranteed and any predictions are always fraught with risks, I'm reasonably sure majority of them will prove to be quite accurate. They are based on my analysis of personalities involved and outcomes of similar situations from past.(1) The Iraqi elections will go on as scheduled. This is one I'm most sure of. Barring some kind of cataclysmic event,Iraqis will go to polls on January 30. Because of terrorist activity, which will only intensify as that date draws closer, it is anyone's guess as to how many Iraqis will actually go to polls. However, President Bush is bound and determined that these elections will take place on schedule, come hell or high water. I doubt if anyone, other than God Himself, would be capable of changing President's mind on this issue.
(2) Michael Jackson will be acquitted. Despite how bad Jackson might look, there's just not enough evidence linking him to crime he's be accused of. Most of stuff that makes him look so bad has nothing to do with this case. If he is acquitted, he should then do "moonwalk" on courtroom steps to rub Jane Velez-Mitchell's nose in it.
(3) Gas prices will continue to drop. This is simply a matter of supply and demand. Oil and gas prices were way too high for way too long. This caused oil producing nations to cheat on their quotas and export more crude. Refiners increased their output as well to take advantage of higher prices. As a result, there's now an oil glut, despite OPEC's announced cut in production. This will continue to put heavy downward pressure on oil prices. I expect average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in U.S. to dip to $1.30 sometime in 2005 before recovering a little.
(4) Al Gore will re-emerge onto political scene. He will start making more high visibility speeches as well as more appearances on TV talk show circuit, in preparation for his run for presidency in 2008. Gore will once again become a formidable candidate for highest office in land.
(5) Progress will be made in Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza will go on as planned. The new Palestinian Authority leader not be anywhere near hard-liner that Arafat was. In response, Ariel Sharon will take less of a hard line toward Palestinians. I'm not saying that 2005 will bring peace between Israel and PLO, but a step in right direction will be taken. However, given their history, any progress could be just temporary.
(6) Bush will tackle tax reform, but chicken out on Social Security reform. Social Security reform, at least for 2005, will prove to be too much of a hot potato for President and for Congress. Tax reform, although difficult itself, is path of least resistance. I don't foresee a major overhaul, though. Look for some kind of simplification of current tax code, along with some version of Lifetime Savings Account. The Roth 401(k) might finally become a reality as well.
