The answer is: no one knows. Many self-styled "gurus" and "pundits" - authors of voluminous tomes they sell to
gullible - pretend to know.But their "expertise" is an admixture of guesswork, superstitions, anecdotal "evidence" and hearsay. The sad truth is that no methodical, long term, and systematic research has been attempted in nascent field of e-publishing and, more broadly, digital content on Web. So, no one knows to say for sure whether free content sells, when, or how.
There are two schools - apparently equally informed by dearth of hard data. One is "viral school". Its vocal proponents claim that dissemination of free content fuels sales by creating "buzz" (word of mouth marketing driven by influential communicators). The "intellectual property" school roughly says that free content cannibalizes paid content mainly because it conditions potential consumers to expect free information. Free content also often serves as a substitute (imperfect but sufficient) to paid content.
Experience - though patchy - confusingly seems to points both ways.
Views and prejudices tend to converge around this consensus: whether free content sells or not depends on a few variables. They are:
(1) The nature of information. People are generally willing to pay for specific or customized information, tailored to their idiosyncratic needs, provided in a timely manner, and by authorities in field. The more general and "featureless" information, more reluctant people are to dip into their pockets (probably because there are many free substitutes).
(2) The nature of audience. The more targeted information, more it caters to needs of a unique, or specific group, more often it has to be updated ("maintained"), less indiscriminately applicable it is, and especially if it deals with money, health, sex, or relationships - more valuable it is and more people are willing to pay for it. The less computer savvy users - unable to find free alternatives - are more willing to pay.
(3) Time dependent parameters. The more content is linked to "hot" topics, "burning" issues, trends, fads, buzzwords, and "developments" - more likely it is to sell regardless of availability of free alternatives.
(4) The "U" curve. People pay for content if free information available to them is either (a) insufficient or (b) overwhelming. People will buy a book if author's Web site provides only a few tantalizing excerpts. But they are equally likely to buy book if its entire full text content is available online and overwhelms them. Packaged and indexed information carries a premium over same information in bulk. Consumer willingness to pay for content seems to decline if amount of content provided falls between these two extremes. They feel sated and need to acquire further information vanishes. Additionally, free content must really be free. People resent having to pay for free content, even if currency is their personal data.
