I'm going to outline a series of events listed in order that they have to occur that may have to happen before market can sustain a rally. They are trust, accountability, economy, new thinking and earnings.

Trust: A Matter of Mea Culpa, Hara-kiri, and Open Kimonos

Mea Culpa

I think biggest problem with misdeeds of corporate titans that have been caught in cookie jar is that none have come clean. It would be very refreshing if one would step forward and say he/she just let it get out of hand. However, mea culpa isn’t just necessary from those facing criminal conviction. To a certain degree we all played a role in market’s demise. The individual investor will have to come to grips with fact they threw caution, common sense and discipline to wind. Most investors are blaming their brokers, but at end of day free will plays a role.

Then I’d love media to admit they played a role. CNBC in particular has spent last year and half acting like they weren’t part of hype. They don’t want to admit they were carnival barker, not just reporting on events inside tent.

Next there are brokerage firms themselves that already were working in a Catch-22, as they had to answer to two masters; individual client and corporate client. Now they had to fend off threat of Internet, which became a Borg-like creature that changed rules of Wall Street. In effect, it became great California Gold Rush.

It isn’t about getting preachy, but we all say we messed up, I think we’ll all be back on track mentally. The dream of quick riches has been wiped out, but dream of making money in stock market is still intact.

Hara-kiri

In addition to coming clean some folks are going to have to go an extra step. I would say that not all of CEOs that have failed shareholders did so with selfish greed and malicious intent.

The bottom line is that they probably have to be replaced. Not because they can’t learn from their mistakes, but because underlying share prices will never recover, as question marks and doubt will always haunt them.

This brings up another dilemma, thin talent pool. As public rightfully screams for beheading of CEOs and dismantling of too friendly boards few are considering their replacements. If you think baseball has been yielding too many homers in part to a thin talent pool, just imagine trying to field a thousand of so publicly traded companies? Developing a big-time CEO is harder than finding a person that can pitch a 100-miles an hour, plus steroids really don’t do much for decision-making process of a corporate executive.

Open Kimonos