BEHIND THE CURVEMarket index funds like Vanguard’s famous S&P500 fund and
SPY “Spyder” on
AMEX caught on in
late 90’s, right when
long bull market turned into a crazy bubble with a blowoff top in 2000.
There are very good reasons to use index funds – low expenses,
failure of most active managers to beat
indexes consistently and
statistical trend that says stocks return an average of 11% per annum over long periods of time. A cheap route to a “sure” return in a world of unreliable fund managers and individual investors who couldn’t time
market right if they had an Olympic chronometer and three judges - looks good, huh?
Just invest, forget about it and spend your time thinking about a comfy retirement. The S&P500 returned an annualized 17% per year from mid-1982 to mid-2000. Easy money with only a couple of dips on
way.
Except – what happens to your portfolio if
market indexes go nowhere for years on end?
The statistics say that over
decades,
11% return will keep you safe. But what if you catch a couple of bad decades? Most of us didn’t get serious about putting money in
market until our 30’s – and we planned to retire 20-25 years later. What does your retirement pot of gold look like when
“usual return” falls behind and you run out of decades to catch up?
From mid-1997 to mid-2002
SPX was flat. From 1998 to 2003, SPX investors lost money. Ditto 1999-2004.
Break down
expected 11% return into 5-year periods. An index investor expects to bring in 70% or more every five years, depending on how often
gains are reinvested. The problem with compounding is how quickly you can fall behind. SPX investors who put in money from 1998-2001 didn’t make money.
Surely they can make that up later, right?
Don’t be so sure. A tax-free portfolio that starts with $100 and returns 11% annually should have $111 after one year, $123 after two, $136 after three years and $152 after four. Five years later it’s $168.
Think about
leap – if you end up flat
first three years, your portfolio has to rack up a 52% gain to get back on track by year four. Has
SPX returned 50% in one year in our lifetimes? Not that I can find. Forget about a 68% banner year.
The compounding you need to achieve
magic 11% is fragile indeed. If your portfolio is flat for five years and returns to
11% norm
next five years,
183% you should have earned for
preceding decade only turns out to be 68%. Your fifteen-year return is 183% instead of
378% you expected.