Beat the House with this Supa Blackjack StrategyWritten by Kent Clarke
In game of blackjack, final hand you hold can only be one of following - a blackjack, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16 or less, or bust. If you bust, you have lost, whereas if you hold blackjack worse case scenario is a tie with dealer with best case scenario being you get paid a bonus of 1.5 times your stake. You probably realize that chances of winning if you stand on your 17 - 21 are very important, so what are they? Not as good as you might like!Here's an example stand on 17 in a 6 deck game (the dealer must stand on 17). You are probaqly thinking that's a good hand and are happy to happy to have 17. The statistics prove though, that you will lose more often than win if dealer shows any face card except a 6. The most money is lost in this scenario when dealer shows a 9, least when dealer shows a 4 or a 5. Make a mental note - you only stand a fighting chance when dealer has a 6 showing. Only in THIS case will you have a statistical chance of winning money in long run. You will now be wondering how you can make money, given these facts. You can't. If you hit a hard 17 you will expreience mounting losses, so wise course of action is simply to stand. Of course, often you can stand on 17 and still win a hand but numbers add up inexorably - over time you will end up losing more money than you win UNLESS dealer shows a 6. Standing on 17 is not a good idea! Now you know that 17 is actually not a good hand, you have probably already realized you should never stand on soft 17 (instead you should either hit or double down). There is a further disadvantage too, when dealer hits soft 17, as follows. Imagine you stand with 18. This has GOT to be better than standing on 17, right? Yes, but improvement in your odds might surprise you. With an 18, and over long run you are going to make money when dealer shows a 2 to 8 face card. You will still actually LOSE money when dealer's showing a 9, 10 or Ace. For this reason you should never stand, but should always hit a soft 18 if dealer shows a 9, 10, or Ace. Statistical 'Monte Carlo' analysis of Black Jack by www.supabets.com has revealed that in imaginary case of you ALWAYS having a hand of 18, surprising fact is that you would LOSE an average of about 65 cents for every $100 you bet. 18 ain't such a great hand! Human psycology is what makes us think opposite - 18 is 'nearly 19', and 19, or course, is 'nearly 20'. An 18, in subconscious mind, is therefore 'nearly 21'!! What about 19? Can we regularly stand on 19 and win money in long run? 19 MUST be a winning hand! The answer is... Yes, except if dealer shows a 10 or Ace. If that is case, your 19 will still cause you to lose money in long run. Hard to believe, huh? When you get up to 20 you are basically in money. This hand will make you money in long run whatever dealer holds, even including an Ace. As 20 is such a phenomenally strong hand, NEVER split it 10 10 (and likewise an Ace 9 should never be doubled). It's a winning hand - and if it ain't broke, don't fix it!
| | Making the MarketWritten by Trader Jack
Almost everything you have ever been told about world's stock markets is probably wrong. Almost everything you have ever assumed about world's stock markets is also probably wrong. You probably believe that share prices go up and down due to classic 'supply and demand' laws. You probably believe that over time, world's stock markets will go up because of increased economic production, or inflationary pressures. You probably believe that your broker, though undoubtedly a parasite, makes his money reasonably fairly by charging you an honest declared spread between his bid and offer price. You might even be laboring under delusion that 'fundamentals' or 'interest rates' drive price. Wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong. So where's proof, I hear you cry. OK, here we go. Markets are composed of players of all sizes (including you and me!) according to www.traders101.com, largest of whom are 'Market Makers'; firms who have an obligation to quote a price on particular securities whatever overall market is doing. Brave of them, I hear you think - imagine having to buy Enron as it plummeted. Surely they ended up with most of that worthless stock in their own portfolios? Er, no. So where did it go then? Patience, little investor. Get something straight in your mind now - although these market makers would like you to think that they are simple 'middle men', buying from Fred and selling to Joe, while pocketing spread between those two prices in an honest, upfront sort of way, truth is rather more devious (not to mention complicated). The real tool that market makers use to create their own profits is embedded within that sentence. The spread. I hear you think, "I have no problem with them charging a fee for their service - everyone has to make a living, and it's only a few percent after all! ". Wrong again! The whole concept of a 'spread' allows a market maker to control market in same way that a shepherd controls a flock of witless sheep. Let me elaborate How Market should work Imagine that a market really IS controlled by laws of "supply and demand", and rises and falls due to imbalance between external buyers and sellers (you and me) competing for, or shunning certain securities. In this wonderful la-la land, market makers really don't care what market does, as they make their own money from spread. And a nice profit is is too. But hang on - isn't there any way to make MORE money from these investing sheep? Of course there is. How Market really works To lubricate their transactions, market makers need a supply, or inventory of securities they support. This can either be real certificates, or via a process called 'stock lending' (don't worry about THAT one yet - it basically means they borrow stock or "pretend" they have it). Once you have an inventory of stock, and concept of 'spread' (or 'edge'), a marvelous opportunity opens up. The average price at which a market maker accumulates a security and average price at which he distributes it are going to be different. Add this to fact that market maker sets price tick by tick, and boom! A license to print money. Observe closely, this is a good trick. Let's play Chicken I, as a market maker, decide (for no real reason, or perhaps because there has been some trivial news about them) that stock in ABC Corp is my plaything today. I don't have much of an inventory in that particular security, so what do I do? Mark up price so external holders will sell me some? No. I mark price DOWN. Oof. Some external parties see this as a buying opportunity, and as I am a market maker, I am obliged to sell them security at new, lower price, meaning I am even shorter on that security.
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