The negative, and at times scary news seems to be coming hitting
stock market from all corners of our world. Just as
headlines from
geopolitical realm let up,
glare of terrorism raises its ugly head again. This time with a twist that was as tart and hard-hitting as any lemon or lime mix. The country’s enemies are now recruiting US-born operatives and that makes
likelihood of a successful strike in
nation much more likely creating a cloud over American life and over
stock market. Somewhere down
line, some major company will report fantastic earnings and guidance and at
same time all
economic data will paint a picture of a healthy nation and, at that point,
Dirty Bomb may seep back to
crevices of our minds that houses
Dirty Bird (my apologies to Falcons fans for bringing that up), and
movie "Dirty Dancing". Until then, it will always be a convenient reason to sell stocks or explain a sell off. In addition to a healthier economy, more closure in
war on terror would also mitigate
concerns of
Dirty Bomb. That may not happen until Iraq is invaded and
likes of Saddam and Osama are brought to justice. Yet, as long as
market is off in part to worries like these, it will create that much more of a rebound once
dust is settled.
As unsettlingly as
"Dirty Bomb" scare is,
dirty actions that continue to rain on
market from
nations wealthiest people. Say it ain’t so Martha! In
biggest stroke of luck since Hillary made one hundred grand in a single year from a one thousand dollar investment, Martha Stewart says she sold her shares in Imclone not from a tip but because she was a disciplined investor. Of course, she also got a call from
IMCL CEO a day before
FDA issued news that sawed
value of IMCL in half, and coincidentally she sold her position on
same day. If she isn’t telling
truth, then, it boggles
mind. This is a petty crime for a billionaire. Sort of like Dennis Kozlowski trying to beat
taxman on a million dollars.
It really is amazing and so hard to quantify as to
impact it is having on
investing public. Americans will root for
bad guy at times (some will even go to work for
bad guys even if
caper is to destroy America) but they have never rooted for unbridled greed. During a week in which
mega-rich corporate CEO took another kidney punch,
"Dapper Don" was being mourned by an entire city. John Gotti is seen as a hero by scores of people because he did what he had to do. Skipping out on a small tax bill or a minuscule hit in
portfolio isn’t doing what one has to do.
I think
shrapnel from these never-ending cases of violations of trust are much more damaging than
shrapnel from a dirty bomb ever will be. The consequences have been obvious if
stock market is
proxy, but it really becomes a deeper issue for
nation. Just as scientists say they can’t predict
true damage a dirty bomb would have, we never really will be able to truly measure
degree of
radiation of trust that has occurred. Investors also go into each day wondering when
next allegation will rear its ugly head. From a life and death point of view, we never want to deal with a dirty bomb, from a stock market point of view; investors don’t want to hear about another billionaire beating
system for a few bucks.
Thinking has to be Turned Upside Down
As
market continues to crumble and
pundits continue to scratch their heads, or in some cases pat themselves on
back,
big question is how does
market turn itself around? Stocks have been turned upside down and bounced on their heads. In order to get on
same page
entire thinking of
financial world has to also be turned on its head.
It is true of everyone that worked in
financial arena, each day became a season and winners were at
closing bell. In order to play
game, one had to adjust their thinking and that more often than not meant abandoning a game plan that was focused on long-term success, safety and balance. To get back on track public companies will have to ignore
hue and cry from investors and stick to realistic long-term planning. It means more criticism and less income from stock options for those in
executive suites. It also means that analysts will have to focus on pick winners from a longer-term perspective.
The dilemma for
individual investor is to understand that
stock market isn’t a slot machine. They will also have to pay for research and understand that it is an investment, a blueprint that doesn’t become a castle over night. Along
way, it could look like an outhouse, but it will be
only way.
The word "investing" has always had long-term implications and that is
way it will have to be again. Sure, there will be those that want to trade for
quick buck and that’s fine. However, determining whether a foray into
market is a win or loss after only 24-hours is a sure way to ultimately become a loser.