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You'll also see how bad things can be if you don't use it.
You,
Successful Investor
In business and in
stock market, you've got to have a plan, and you've got to have an exit strategy. At The Oxford Club, we know in advance exactly when we're going to buy and sell. Our strategy allows us to ride our winners all
way up, while minimizing
damage our losers can do. Before I get into our specific strategy, consider this business example.
Let's say you're in
T-shirt business. You've made a ton of money on your T-shirt business in
states, and you're now in The Bahamas looking for new opportunities. You size up
market, and you figure you can make money in two places: in golf shirts, geared at
businessman, and in "muscle-tees," geared toward
vacationing beach-goers. These are two products clearly aimed at two different markets.
You invest $100,000 in each of these businesses. At
end of
first year, your golf shirts are already showing a profit of $20,000. But
muscle-tees haven't caught on yet, and you've got a loss of $20,000. There are numerous reasons why this is possible, so you make some changes in your designs and marketing and continue for another year.
But in
second year
same thing happens–you make another $20,000 on your golf shirts, and you lose another $20,000 on your muscle-tees.
Now let's say you're ready to invest another $100,000 in one of these businesses. Which one business do you put your money into?
The answer is obvious. You, as a business owner, put more money toward your successful businesses. But as you'll see, this is
opposite of what 99% of individual investors in America do.
You,
Successful Stock Market Picker
What does "owning shares of stock" actually mean? This isn't a trick question–as you know, it means you're a partial owner of
company, just like you're
owner of
t-shirt company in
example. Owning your own business isn't any different than owning a share of a business through stock.
Let's say
shares of your two shirt companies trade on
stock exchange. They both start trading at $10 a share. At
end of
first year,
profitable golf-shirt company is trading for $12 a share, and
unprofitable muscle-shirt company is trading for $8 a share. At
end of
second year,
golf shirt company is trading at $14 while
muscle-shirt company is trading at $6 a share. Which shares would you rather own?
Even though you know you should buy
winning concept in this business example, most investors don't do so in their stock investments. They keep throwing good money after bad hoping for a turnaround. They buy
"cheap" stock–the loser.
The Trailing Stop Strategy
In
stock market, you must have a strategy that makes you methodically cut your losses and let your winners ride. If you follow this rule, you have
best chance of outperforming
markets. If you don't, your retirement is in trouble.
Our plan is to ride our stocks as high as we can, but if they head for a crash, we have our exit strategy in place to protect us from damage. Though we have many levels of defense and many reasons we could sell a stock, if our reasons don't appear before
crash,
Trailing Stop Strategy is our last-ditch measure to save our hard-earned dollars. And, as you'll see, it works well.
The main element to The Oxford Club's trailing stop strategy is a 25% rule. We will sell positions at 25% off their highs. For example, if we buy a stock at $50, and it rises to $100, when do we sell it? When it falls back to $75, or 25% off our high.
So with our Trailing Stop Strategy, when would we have gotten out of
muscle-shirt business? You already know
answer. Remember
shares started at $10 and fell immediately. Instead of waiting around until they fell to $6 as
business faltered, using your 25% trailing stop, you would have sold out at $7.50. And think of it this way–if
shares fall to $8, you're only asking for a 25% gain to get back to where they started. But if
shares fell to $5, you're asking for a dog of a stock to rise 100%. This only happens once in a blue moon–not good odds!
Advice on When to Buy Stock
Have you ever seen Coke or Microsoft selling at a single-digit P/E ratio? Me neither. And these aren't isolated cases. The fact is, by hoping to buy super-cheap, you would have missed out on many of
greatest investment opportunities of our time. To make
big bucks in
best investments you'll have to forget "buy low, sell high." The new Oxford Club investment rule is "buy momentum, sell higher."
We like to buy companies on
way up. It usually means
company is doing something right. It's equivalent to your golf- shirt business in The Bahamas. Let me explain.
Let's say that you and I believe in
idea of a three- wheeled car, and
price of
stock in
company that manufacturers them is at $30... but falling. When do we invest? At $30? $20? $10? $5? We don't know how far this thing will fall. We want to buy when there's some inkling of a market confirmation of our idea.
There is no price that's
right price. Take $10 for example. I'd be a buyer at $10 if our three-wheeled car had fallen to $5 first, and then
stock started to take off because Ford was going to take it over. But I'm not a buyer at $10 if it's one stop on
way down–the last stop on that elevator could be
basement. The bottom line is this: I don't want to buy dreams alone–I want to buy dreams that are turning
corner to reality.
We've got a complete buy and sell strategy for all–every single one–of our stock positions.
Here's How Our Trailing Stop Strategy Works
(See Part 2 and 3 of this white paper by searching this web site by Author's Name for ‘Steve Sjuggerud.’)
