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In end, president has to cast a net so wide and ambitious that he may even be snared by it. This is law and order party, so we expected longer prison terms. However that doesn’t change fact that there is too much gray area in rules, and until that changes many public companies are going to go for bling-bling. After all, that is difference between a for-profit and a not-for-profit-company. At very least, individual investors buy stocks in companies because they think company will grab brass ring (if you’re lucky, maybe said company will reach platinum ring).
A final thought on Bush address. It is obvious that he has a formidable obstacle in front of him trying to fix a problem that is systemic in nature. Years of status quo have to be torn down, almost overnight if US equities market is to ever recover from its current state. In meantime, his get-tough approach could put another nail in coffin of small publicly traded companies. I’m talking about 3000 or so companies that trade like orphans in market, with no Jack Grubman to pump them. These companies already pay a disproportionate amount of money on compliance and filings. They simply can’t be expected to adhere to new rule changes; it will put many out of business. I’m not sure if public is in mood for special exemptions or if Bush administration really cares or understands problems. Yet it could be disastrous. These small companies are already afraid of SEC, because they don’t have large legal department that can fight back. They need a break, or else another victim of current crisis in American financial system will be American promise itself. The dream is that a company can get financing and challenge giants and in process add to spirit that has kept America ahead of rest if world in terms of innovation andtechnical prowess.
It is a tough and dire situation. Somewhere down line goal of innovation and achievement gave way to greed. We all have been seduced by bling-bling, but now it’s back to basics, hopefully market can hang in there while transition is being made.
Other Thoughts and Observations A few weeks ago, I said that individual investor wouldn’t step in to buy stocks on weakness like they did post September 11th. It is one thing to not let bastards win, but another to bail out homegrown bastards that abused system and our trust. Since then, selling has become so pronounced that a hint of patriotic fervor has returned. It moved long-time bear, Byron Wein, to pick up flag and say stocks are a buy. Other well known Wall Street bears made upbeat comments about long-term potential of stock market. However, none picked bottom.
Outside of days and weeks immediately following terrorist attacks, I can’t think of a time when Washington should be less partisan. Forget blame game for a moment and stop acting like Hatfield and McCoy clans. There is nothing to brag about and problems are so universal and pervasive that everyone has played a role.
I’ve asked that everyone remain hopeful but gather as much cash as possible. It may be time to put that cash to use, really soon. My best guess is that 8177 is going to be launching pad. I do find it interesting that techs are probably going to outperform blue chips this summer. If there is a new paradigm shift then that means a long-term recovery in stock market will have to come from a sector other than techs.
Since 1991, Charles Paynes’ Wall Street Strategies has successfully provided timely and effective equity advice to institutional money managers, retail brokers and individual investors of all types, and has thousands of subscribers from hundreds of brokerage firms. http://www.wstreet.com