Continued from page 1
In
end,
president has to cast a net so wide and ambitious that he may even be snared by it. This is
law and order party, so we expected longer prison terms. However that doesn’t change
fact that there is too much gray area in
rules, and until that changes many public companies are going to go for bling-bling. After all, that is
difference between a for-profit and a not-for-profit-company. At
very least, individual investors buy stocks in companies because they think
company will grab
brass ring (if you’re lucky, maybe said company will reach
platinum ring).
A final thought on
Bush address. It is obvious that he has a formidable obstacle in front of him trying to fix a problem that is systemic in nature. Years of status quo have to be torn down, almost overnight if
US equities market is to ever recover from its current state. In
meantime, his get-tough approach could put another nail in
coffin of small publicly traded companies. I’m talking about
3000 or so companies that trade like orphans in
market, with no Jack Grubman to pump them. These companies already pay a disproportionate amount of money on compliance and filings. They simply can’t be expected to adhere to
new rule changes; it will put many out of business. I’m not sure if
public is in
mood for special exemptions or if
Bush administration really cares or understands
problems. Yet it could be disastrous. These small companies are already afraid of
SEC, because they don’t have
large legal department that can fight back. They need a break, or else another victim of
current crisis in
American financial system will be
American promise itself. The dream is that a company can get financing and challenge
giants and in
process add to
spirit that has kept America ahead of
rest if
world in terms of innovation andtechnical prowess.
It is a tough and dire situation. Somewhere down
line
goal of innovation and achievement gave way to greed. We all have been seduced by bling-bling, but now it’s back to basics, hopefully
market can hang in there while
transition is being made.
Other Thoughts and Observations A few weeks ago, I said that
individual investor wouldn’t step in to buy stocks on weakness like they did post September 11th. It is one thing to not let
bastards win, but another to bail out homegrown bastards that abused
system and our trust. Since then,
selling has become so pronounced that a hint of patriotic fervor has returned. It moved long-time bear, Byron Wein, to pick up
flag and say stocks are a buy. Other well known Wall Street bears made upbeat comments about
long-term potential of
stock market. However, none picked
bottom.
Outside of
days and weeks immediately following
terrorist attacks, I can’t think of a time when Washington should be less partisan. Forget
blame game for a moment and stop acting like
Hatfield and McCoy clans. There is nothing to brag about and
problems are so universal and pervasive that everyone has played a role.
I’ve asked that everyone remain hopeful but gather as much cash as possible. It may be time to put that cash to use, really soon. My best guess is that 8177 is going to be
launching pad. I do find it interesting that
techs are probably going to outperform
blue chips this summer. If there is a new paradigm shift then that means a long-term recovery in
stock market will have to come from a sector other than
techs.

Since 1991, Charles Paynes’ Wall Street Strategies has successfully provided timely and effective equity advice to institutional money managers, retail brokers and individual investors of all types, and has thousands of subscribers from hundreds of brokerage firms. http://www.wstreet.com