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The methodology required to size these new markets requires two approaches. Each approach will yield a different approximation of
potential market size, and often
figures will work together to provide a solid foundation for
market’s potential. Growthink calls
first approach “peeling back
onion.” In this approach, we start with
generic market (e.g.,
coffee market) that that company is trying to penetrate, and remove pieces of that market that it will not target. For instance, if
company created an ultra high-speed coffee maker that retailed for $600, it would initially reduce
market size by factors such as retail channels (e.g., mass marketers would not carry
product), demographic factors (lower income customers would not purchase
product), etc. By peeling back
generic market, you eventually will be left with only
relevant portion of it.
The second methodology requires assessing
market from several angles to approximate
potential market share, answering questions including:
•Competitors: who is competing for
customer that you will be serving; what is in their product pipeline; once you release a product/service, how long will it take them to enter
market, who else may enter
market, etc.
•Customers: what are
demographics and psychographics of
customers you will be targeting; what products are they currently using to fulfill a similar need (substitute products); how are they currently purchasing these products; what is their degree of loyalty to current providers, etc.
•Market factors: what other factors exist that will influence
market size – government regulations; market consolidation in related markets, price changes for raw materials, etc.
•Case Studies: what other markets have experience similar transformations and what were
customer adoption rates in those markets, etc.
While these methodologies are often more painstaking than traditional market research techniques, they can be
difference in determining whether your company has
next iPod or
next Edsel.
