Continued from page 1
The looming war with Iraq will change all that. This is
fervent hope of intellectuals throughout
region, even those viscerally opposed to America's high-handed hegemony. But this may well be only another false dawn in many. The inevitable massive postwar damage to
area's fragile economies will spawn added oppression rather than enhance democracy.
According to The Economist,
military buildup has already injected $2 billion into Kuwait's economy, equal to 6 percent of its GDP. Prices of everything - from real estate to cars - are rising fast. The stock exchange index has soared by one third. American largesse extends to Turkey -
recipient of $5 billion in grants, $1 billion in oil and $10 billion in loan guarantees. Egypt and Jordan will reap $1 billion apiece and, possibly, subsidized Saudi oil as well. Israel will abscond with $8 billion in collateral and billions in cash.
But
party may be short-lived, especially if
war proves to be as decisive and nippy as
Americans foresee.
Stratfor,
strategic forecasting consultancy, correctly observes that
United States is likely to encourage American oil companies to boost Iraq's postbellum production. With Venezuela back on line and global tensions eased, deteriorating crude prices may adversely affect oil-dependent countries from Iran to Algeria.
The resulting social and political unrest - coupled with violent, though typically impotent, protests against
war, America and
political leadership - is unlikely to convince panicky tottering regimes to offer greater political openness and participatory democracy.
War will traumatize tourism, another major regional foreign exchange earner. Egypt alone collects $4 billion a year from eager pyramid-gazers - about one ninth of its GDP. Add to that
effects of armed conflict on traffic in
Suez Canal, on investments and on expat remittances - and
country could well become
war's greatest victim.
In a recent economic conference of
Arab League, Egyptian Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Faiza Abu el-Naga, pegged
immediate losses to her country at $6-8 billion. More than 200,000 jobs will be lost in tourism alone. Egypt's Information and Decision Support Centre (IDSC) distributed a study predicting $900 million in damages to
Jordanian economy and billions more to be incurred by oil-rich Saudi Arabia.
The Arab Bank Federation foresees banking losses of up to $60 billion due to contraction in economic activity both during
war and in its aftermath. This may be too pessimistic. But even
optimists talk about $30 billion in foregone revenues. The reconstruction of Iraq could revitalize
sector - but American and European banks will probably monopolize
lucrative opportunity.
War is likely to have a stultifying effect on
investment climate.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt each attract around $1 billion a year in foreign direct investment - double Iran's rising rate. But global FDI was halved in
last two years. This years, flows will revert to 1998 levels. This implosion is likely to affect even increasingly attractive or resurgent destinations such as Israel, Turkey, Iraq and Iran.
Foreign investors will be deterred not only by
fighting but also by a mounting wave of virulent - and increasingly violent - xenophobia. Consumer boycotts are a traditional weapon in
Arab political arsenal. Coca-Cola's sales in these parched lands have plummeted by 10 percent last year. Pepsi's overseas sales flattened due to Arabs shunning its elixirs. American-franchised fast food outlets saw their business halved. McDonald's had to close some of its restaurants in Jordan.
Foreign business premises have been vandalized even in
Gulf countries. According to The Economist "in
past year overall business at western fast-food and drinks firms has dropped by 40% in Arab countries. Trade in American branded goods has shrunk by a quarter."
These are bad news. Multinationals are sizable employers. Coca-Cola alone is responsible for 220,000 jobs in
Middle East. Procter & Gamble invested $100 million in Egypt. Foreign enterprises pay well and transfer technology and management skills to their local joint venture partners.
Nor is foreign involvement confined to retail. The $35 billion Middle Eastern petrochemicals sector is reliant on
kindness of strangers: Indian, Canadian, South Korean and, lately, Chinese. Singapore and Malaysia are eyeing
tourism industry, especially in
Gulf. Their withdrawal from
indigenous economies might prove disastrous.
Nor will these battered nations be saved by geopolitical benefactors.
The economies of
Middle East are off
radar screen of
Bush administration, accuses Edward Gresser of
Progressive Policy Institute in a recently published report titled "Blank Spot on
Map: How Trade Policy is Working Against
War on Terror".
Egypt and most other Moslem countries are heavily dependent on their textile and agricultural exports to
West. But, by 2015, they will face tough competition from nations with contractual trade advantages granted them by
United States, goes
author.
Still,
fault is shared by entrenched economic interest groups in
Middle East . Petrified by
daunting prospect of reforms and
ensuing competitive environment, they block free trade, liberalization and deregulation.
Consider
Persian Gulf, a corner of
world which subsists on trading with partners overseas.
Not surprisingly, most of
members of
Arab Gulf Cooperation Council have joined
World Trade Organization a while back. But their citizens are unlikely to enjoy
benefits at least until 2010 due to obstruction by
club's all-powerful and tentacular business families, international bankers and economists told
Times of Oman.
The rigidity and malignant self-centeredness of
political and economic elite and
confluence of oppression and profiteering are
crux of
region's problems. No external shock - not even war in Iraq - comes close to having
same pernicious and prolonged effects.

Sam Vaknin ( http://samvak.tripod.com ) is the author of Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West Lost the East. He served as a columnist for Central Europe Review, PopMatters, and eBookWeb , and Bellaonline, and as a United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent. He is the the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory and Suite101.