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By December 1999, Ivester was out as CEO, after board members Warren Buffett and Herbert Allen told him that they have lost confidence in his leadership. If anything, next CEO Doug Daft fared even worse than Ivester. Daft, an Australian and who ran Coke’s Japanese operations, did not have a clue about culture in Atlanta. In a sort of retaliation for Ivester’s handling of Keough’s loyalists, he also made many of Ivester’s favorite executives leave company. He also looked for quick fixes – for example, by trying to boost Coca-Cola’s profitability by simply reducing headcount. By May of last year, Daft was out as CEO, and Neville Isdell – a former darling of Keough – came out of retirement to run Coca-Cola.
Described as “charismatic,” Isdell may be best man for job, but it is still too early to see what he can do at this stage to revitalize brand. Under leadership of trio of Goizueta, Keough, and Ivester in 1980s and much of 1990s, shares of Coca-Cola were a must-have and Coca-Cola was regarded as a growth stock. Please also keep in mind, however, that run of KO during that time also occurred in midst of greatest bull market in U.S. stock market history.
Again, readers should recall that I have always contended that we are still in a secular bear market – a bear market not unsimilar to 1966 to 1974 secular bear market. While indices such as Dow Industrials, Transports, S&P 400 and S&P 600 have recovered nicely since cyclical bear market bottom in October 2002, large caps such as Coca-Cola, Microsoft, or even GE have never really covered, and it is my belief that large caps will continue to underperform once bear reasserts itself sometime this year. The dividend yield of 2.6% may or may not help, but who would want to hold a “value stock” once Fed Funds rate is greater than its dividend yield (as of right now, Fed Funds rate is 2.5%)? I really do not see deep value here. While a P/E of 20 is at low end of its five-year range, it is interesting to note that Warren Buffett started buying his shares of Coca-Cola in 1988 when P/E was only 13 (with a market cap of less than $15 billion) – and analysts at time were proclaiming stock to be expensive! S&P currently projects a fair value of Coca-Cola at $46, so there is really not a great margin of safety here.
While I believe Coca-Cola is a very strong brand and should be a part of every investor’s long-term core holdings, I do not believe it is a good time to buy at this point. The growth in stock price of KO was neither due to luck nor coincidence – it was due to Goizueta’s shrewd management of stock price, Keough’s salesmanship of company, and Ivester’s financial genius – along with a roaring bull market more than anything else. Despite lack of leadership in Coca-Cola during last seven years, part of old dream of KO being a growth stock has still hung on – for far too long. For KO to be an attractive stock once again, this author will need to see a more compelling valuation, such as a stock price of $25 to $30 a share. At some point, however, I believe KO may be a glamour stock once again (as it still has a lot of potential in China and India where only a total of about 850 million cases of Coke finished products were shipped in 2004, compared to 20 billion cases for entire world), but not until some of weak hands have been shaken out from stock.
Please let us know your thoughts and opinions. Is KO a buy, hold or sell?
Henry To, CFA is the managing member of Independence Partners, LP, a SEC registered hedge fund. He is also editor of the investment website, www.marketthoughts.com.