Continued from page 1
Political stability exists as long as standard of living in any country remains at least constant. The risk in a sharply raising standard of living for those directly benefiting from PRC Capitalism is that when their living standards fall, social unrest is certain to follow. I suspect PRC living standards will start to fall in next few years.
Taiwan is a flash point. A decision by Taipei to declare independence would put PRC into untenable position of losing face or going to war. A loss of face would probable lead to breakup of PRC. For instance, there are 250 million PRC citizens who follow teachings of Mohammed. Most want independence from PRC. The PRC invaded Tibet and Tibetans have consistently sought their independence. A war would quickly involve United States, Japan and European Union. Either response to Taiwan Independence ensures that Chinese Economic Bubble would burst.
North Korea is a loose canon that threatens region. The PRC is at far more risk of a North Korean nuclear attack than is generally acknowledged in West. After all, when you are crazy and your friends turn away from you as your people starve, it's easy to blame your former friends for your woes.
Because of PRC's export dependence, you should view longevity of PRC Bubble in context of strength of Western Economies. When American Real Estate Bubble bursts, as U.S. Media predicts, a Worldwide Recession will follow. Given that Real Estate Market is based upon perceived value and American Media are destroying perception, odds are West should brace for a Recession in next couple of years. A Western Recession will drastically reduce PRC exports. It could be needle that pricks PRC Bubble.
If you are a PRC Capitalist or Taiwanese investor, there are some steps you should consider taking to protect yourself. 1. Take your PRC Company public in West. You will convert your fixed PRC assets into liquid shares that can be converted into a free trading currency. 2. Move a percentage of your assets offshore. Doing so gives your family insurance should you find it necessary to flee PRC or Taiwan. 3. Obtain a second passport.
This Bubble Bursting Defense is common sense. A trickle of PRC middle class families has adopted it. A larger number of Taiwanese family use it. You should be part of this trickle before it becomes a flood and economic dam cracks and bubble bursts.
It's your future and fate of your family. Plan carefully or be swept aside by macroeconomics.
He has been the Managing Director of Beowulf Investments [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] since 1981 and is the Executive Director of the Global Village Investment Club [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]