For each date and condition, compounded annual return rates were computed from 1950 to 2005. [Editorial note: compounded annual return rate is accepted yardstick for comparing investment performance. Of course, coins do not grow at a guaranteed uniform rate, such as bonds do, but if a coin is purchased at a certain price, and that price is compared with value of coin at some later date, compounded annual return rate can be calculated for time period in between]. Return rate computations were made from 1980 to 2005, 1995 to 2005, and 2000 to 2005. For each Morgan dollar, data was placed in tabular format.

Next, I calculated a “composite” score for each date by averaging all compounded return rates computed for that date. Continuing on with example above, “composite” score for 1889-CC is 9.14. I then ranked all “composite” scores. The Morgan silver dollars with highest scores are as follows:

Date: Score: 1895 11.37 1892-CC 10.54 1894 10.43 1878-CC 10.28 1883-CC 10.25

So, it would appear, based on past performance over a period of 55 years, 1895 is Morgan silver dollar with best hope of appreciating significantly in years ahead, followed by 1892-CC, 1894, 1878-CC, and 1883-CC. Not surprisingly, dollars of Carson City Mint occupy 13 of top 16 positions, thanks to persistent collectors scrambling for bona fide artifacts of romantic American West. On opposite end of rankings, Morgan silver dollars having bleakest long term prospects include 1898, 1899-O, 1884, and 1888-O, followed by 1897 coming in dead last with a score of 2.66.

Anyone whose dual objective is to acquire Morgan silver dollars with a bullish future ought to begin looking at “Top Five” above. Purchase coins in best condition you can afford, but be sure coins are clean, problem-free, and CERTIFIED by a reputable grading service. Be prepared to hold for at least five years. Morgan dollars have skyrocketed in value in last three years, so some cooling off may be in order before next upward cycle.

If a polling firm were to survey population of US coin collectors, it is very possible that Morgan silver dollars would win vote as most appealing coin in American coinage history. These beautiful coins have been heartbeat of hobby for many years, with no retreat in sight. Ironically, these same coins spent better part of a century hidden away in government vaults, unseen, unwanted, and unloved. My, how times have changed!

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