The next phase will probably involve virtual reality. Each of parties will be represented by an "avatar", a 3-D figurine generated by application (or user's likeness mapped and superimposed on the avatar). These figurines will be multi-dimensional: they will possess their own communication patterns, special habits, history, preferences - in short: their own "personality".

Thus, they will be able to maintain an "identity" and a consistent pattern of communication which they will develop over time.

Such a figure could host a site, accept, welcome and guide visitors, all time bearing their preferences in its electronic "mind". It could narrate news, like digital anchor "Ananova" does. Visiting sites in future is bound to be a much more pleasant affair.

D. The Transport of Value - E-cash

In 1996, four corporate giants (Visa, MasterCard, Netscape and Microsoft) agreed on a standard for effecting secure payments through Internet: SET. Internet commerce is supposed to mushroom to $25 billion by 2003. Site owners will be able to collect rent from passing visitors - or fees for services provided within site. Amazon instituted an honour system to collect donations from visitors. PayPal provides millions of users with cash substitutes. Gradually, Internet will compete with central banks and banking systems in money creation and transfer.

E. The Transport of Interactions - The Virtual Organization

The Internet allows for simultaneous communication and efficient transfer of multimedia (video included) files between an unlimited number of users. This opens up a vista of mind boggling opportunities which are real core of Internet revolution: virtual collaborative ("Follow Sun") modes.

Examples:

A group of musicians is able to compose music or play it - while spatially and temporally separated;

Advertising agencies are able to co-produce ad campaigns in a real time interaction;

Cinema and TV films are produced from disparate geographical spots through teamwork of people who never meet, except through Net.

These examples illustrate concept of "virtual community". Space and time will no longer hinder team collaboration, be it scientific, artistic, cultural, or an ad hoc arrangement for provision of a service (a virtual law firm, or accounting office, or a virtual consultancy network). The intranet can also be thought of as a "virtual organization", or a "virtual business".

The virtual mall and virtual catalogue are prime examples of spatial and temporal liberation.

In 1998, there were well over 300 active virtual malls on Internet. In 2000, they were frequented by 46 million shoppers, who shopped in them for goods and services.

The virtual mall is an Internet "space" (pages) wherein "shops" are located. These shops offer their wares using visual, audio and textual means. The visitor passes through a virtual "gate" or storefront and examines merchandise on offer, until he reaches a buying decision. Then he engages in a feedback process: he pays (with a credit card), buys product, and waits for it to arrive by mail (or downloads it).

The manufacturers of digital products (intellectual property such as e-books or software) have begun selling their merchandise on-line, as file downloads. Yet, slow communications speeds, competing file formats and reader standards, and limited bandwidth - constrain growth potential of this mode of sale. Once resolved - intellectual property will be sold directly from Net, on-line. Until such time, mediation of Post Office is still required. As long as this is state of art, virtual mall is nothing but a glorified computerized mail catalogue or Buying Channel, only difference being exceptionally varied inventory.

Websites which started as "specialty stores" are fast transforming themselves into multi-purpose virtual malls. Amazon.com, for instance, has bought into a virtual pharmacy and into other virtual businesses. It is now selling music, video, electronics and many other products. It started as a bookstore.

This contrasts with a much more creative idea: virtual catalogue. It is a form of narrowcasting (as opposed to broadcasting): a surgically accurate targeting of potential consumer audiences. Each group of profiled consumers (no matter how small) is fitted with their own - digitally generated - catalogue. This is updated daily: variety of wares on offer (adjusted to reflect inventory levels, consumer preferences, and goods in transit) - and prices (sales, discounts, package deals) change in real time. Amazon has incorporated many of these features on its web site. The user enters its web site and there delineates his consumption profile and his preferences. A customized catalogue is immediately generated for him including specific recommendations. The history of his purchases, preferences and responses to feedback questionnaires is accumulated in a database. This intellectual property may well be Amazon's main asset.

There is no technological obstacles to implementing this vision today - only administrative and legal (patent) ones. Big brick and mortar retail stores are not up to processing flood of data expected to result. They also remain highly sceptical regarding feasibility of new medium. And privacy issues prevent data mining or effective collection and usage of personal data (remember case of Amazon's "Readers' Circles").

The virtual catalogue is a private case of a new internet off-shoot: "smart (shopping) agents". These are AI applications with "long memories".

They draw detailed profiles of consumers and users and then suggest purchases and refer to appropriate sites, catalogues, or virtual malls.

They also provide price comparisons and new generation cannot be blocked or fooled by using differing product categories.

In future, these agents will cover also brick and mortar retail chains and, in conjunction with wireless, location-specific services, issue a map of branch or store closest to an address specified by user (the default being his residence), or yielded by his GPS enabled wireless mobile or PDA. This technology can be seen in action in a few music sites on web and is likely to be dominant with wireless internet appliances. The owner of an internet enabled (third generation) mobile phone is likely to be target of geographically-specific marketing campaigns, ads and special offers pertaining to his current location (as reported by his GPS - satellite Geographic Positioning System).

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Sam Vaknin is the author of Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West Lost the East. He is a columnist for Central Europe Review, PopMatters, and eBookWeb , a United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory Bellaonline, and Suite101 .

Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com

The PC was recognized as a medium only 30 years after it was invented with introduction of multimedia software. All this time, computer continued to spin off markets and secondary markets, needs and professional specialties. The talk as always was centred on how to improve on existing markets and solutions.

The Internet is computer's first important application. Hitherto computer was only quantitatively different to other computing or gaming devices. Multimedia and Internet have made it qualitatively superior, sui generis, unique.

Part of problem was that Internet was invented, is maintained and is operated by computer professionals. For decades these people have been conditioned to think in Olympic terms: faster, stronger, higher - not in terms of new, unprecedented, or non-existent. Engineers are trained to improve - seldom to invent. With few exceptions, its creators stumbled across Internet - it invented itself despite them.

Computer professionals (hardware and software experts alike) - are linear thinkers. The Internet is non linear and modular.

It is still age of hackers. There is still a lot to be done in improving technological prowess and powers. But their control of contents is waning and they are being gradually replaced by communicators, creative people, advertising executives, psychologists, venture capitalists, and totally unpredictable masses who flock to flaunt their home pages and graphomania.

These all are attuned to user, his mental needs and his information and entertainment preferences.

The compact disc is a different tale. It was intentionally invented to improve upon an existing technology (basically, Edison’s Gramophone). Market-wise, this was a major gamble. The improvement was, at first, debatable (many said that sound quality of first generation of compact discs was inferior to that of its contemporaneous record players). Consumers had to be convinced to change both software and hardware and to dish out thousands of dollars just to listen to what manufacturers claimed was more a authentically reproduced sound. A better argument was longer life of software (though when contrasted with limited life expectancy of consumer, some of first sales pitches sounded absolutely morbid).

The computer suffered from unclear positioning. The compact disc was very clear as to its main functions - but had a rough time convincing consumers that it was needed.

Every medium is first controlled by technical people. Gutenberg was a printer - not a publisher. Yet, he is world's most famous publisher. The technical cadre is joined by dubious or small-scale entrepreneurs and, together, they establish ventures with no clear vision, market-oriented thinking, or orderly plan of action. The legislator is also dumbfounded and does not grasp what is happening - thus, there is no legislation to regulate use of medium. Witness initial confusion concerning copyrighted vs. licenced software, e-books, and copyrights of ROM embedded software. Abuse or under-utilization of resources grow. The sale of radio frequencies to first cellular phone operators in West - a situation which repeats itself in Eastern and Central Europe nowadays - is an example.

But then more complex transactions - exactly as in real estate in "real life" - begin to emerge. The Internet is likely to converge with "real life". It is likely to be dominated by brick and mortar entities which are likely to import their business methods and management. As its eccentric past (the dot.com boom and dot.bomb bust) recedes - a sustainable and profitable future awaits it.

Sam Vaknin is the author of Malignant Self Love - Narcissism Revisited and After the Rain - How the West Lost the East. He is a columnist for Central Europe Review, PopMatters, and eBookWeb , a United Press International (UPI) Senior Business Correspondent, and the editor of mental health and Central East Europe categories in The Open Directory Bellaonline, and Suite101 .

Visit Sam's Web site at http://samvak.tripod.com