Continued from page 1
If in
marble game your portfolio had grown from
starting $100,000 to $200,000, and you want to stick with your 5% rule, then instead of investing $5,000 on your next investment, you'd go with $10,000. Your risk stays
same (a $10,000 investment in a $200,000 portfolio is
same as a $5,000 investment in a $100,000 portfolio), but your potential for profit escalates because you have more money in play. Similarly, if you happen to start out with some losses, you only risk 5% of what remains in your portfolio.
For your initial investment and for all subsequent investments, you should never take on a bigger risk than you're comfortable with. And you should have a systematic way of investing that ensures that no matter how
size of your portfolio changes, you'll continue to maintain that same risk level.
We advise never to have more than 2% of their capital at risk in any one position. But remember, that doesn't mean that you can only invest 2% in any one position–it means you shouldn't have more than 2% at risk.
To illustrate this 2% rule, let's look at a $100,000 portfolio. If you follow The Oxford Club's rules for 25% trailing stops and 2% risk,
maximum you can invest in any one stock at any one time is $8,000. Here's
formula for figuring that out... [(.02 x 100,000)/.25]. Now here it is "spelled out": .02 times 100,000 = 2,000, divided by .25 = 8,000.
If you decided you wanted to put less at risk–1% of your capital–our formula would be [(.01 x 100,000/.25] and your limit would be $4,000 in any one stock.
The central message here is consistency: Decide on how much you want to risk... and then stick with that number no matter what. Stay with low-risk ideas... have a consistent exit strategy for
stock market... and you'll begin to make money just like
world's greatest investors.
Let Your Winners Run–"Scale" Your Way to Ultra-High Profits
The basic reasoning behind
scaling technique is that once you've found a winner, you absolutely don't want to sell it. Instead, you want to put more money into it...
So far we've seen exactly how your portfolio will benefit from strictly following The Oxford Club's 25% Trailing Stop Strategy. And you've seen how following position-sizing opportunities keeps your capital safe while letting you rake in
maximum amount of profits available. That's a perfect combination.
In scaling in, you'll be using a similar rule to what you learned in our look at trailing stops. Only this time, instead of selling when your stock falls 25%, you'll be adding to your investment when–and every time–it rises 33%.
At about this time, average investors will begin to worry. That's because to them
idea of adding money to a stock that's rising is every bit as frightening as selling a stock that's falling. Once again, emotion has come into play, and it threatens to get in
way of your profits.
But by this time, you should be beyond that. You've seen how being afraid to sell a falling stock can hurt you, so you understand
negative role emotion can play in investing. What's more, you should be able to appreciate how investing more money into a rising stock can help you...
One of
best examples that we can use to illustrate
power of scaling in involves
French telecommunications giant, Alcatel. When we first recommended this company to members it traded at a price of $22. We rode
stock all
way up to a 108% gain before selling it on
way down when we ultimately pocketed 78%.
The fact that we gave back 25% off
stock's top didn't bother us a bit. After all, every $10,000 our members invested in Alacatel had blossomed to $17,000–and this money was safe from any further erosion in
stock's price. But here's how you could have done much, much better with Alcatel.
Rather than just sitting back and watching their winning positions climb,
world's best investors will "feed" their successes more money–so that there's more capital on
table to take advantage of
high profit that will be thrown off by these winning rides. And, of course, they always know how much additional capital to add because they're using
position sizing technique.
As you've seen, our advice is to not put more than 1% or 2% into any one stock market investment or 1% in subsequent scale-ins of that investment. In other words, you put 2% in to start
investment, and then if it climbs 33% for you, you add another 1%... another 33%–another 1% goes in, and so on. I'll illustrate this principle using a very simplified scenario, but I will use a 2% scale-in to emphasize
effective use of scaling in...
Let's suppose that after your initial investment in Alcatel–and for
subsequent 14 months–the size of your portfolio was such that 2% equaled $4,000. That would mean that if Alcatel had gone up 33%, you'd be in a position to feed this investment with another $4,000.
As we saw, Alcatel in fact rose 108% after The Oxford Club recommended it. Which means that you would have had opportunities to do three "scale-ins" of $4,000 each. This scenario is played out in
chart above.
By adding $4,000 each time this stock went up 33%, you would have maximized your profit from it during
14 months The Oxford Club recommended it. So instead of a $10,000 investment growing to a very respectable $17,000, your total stake in Alcatel would have skyrocketed to $43,514.95!
The reason we recommend you wait to do
initial scale-in until your investment has risen a full 33% is that by that point you're guaranteed never to lose any money on
stock as long as you get out at
trailing stop. Because you'll be using a 25% trailing stop,
very worst that could happen to you at this point would be for
stock to return back to
point at which you bought it–a wash, in other words.
An Ideal Profit and Safety Scenario Unfolds...
These secrets are used by 99% of
world's most successful investors, and are now yours to apply to your own investments.
At
end of
day, these secrets–limiting your losses and maximizing your profits–seem to spring from just plain common sense. The problem, of course, is that common sense is an extremely rare commodity in
world of investing. Many investment advisors, newsletters, mainstream media financial TV shows, and Internet "gurus" make a living out of complicating
process with their own forms of investment advice, rather than simplifying it.
After all,
more complicated they make it,
more mysterious it seems. And
more mysterious it seems,
more it can play on
emotions of investors. And
more emotional investors get,
more they'll turn to these very same self-proclaimed experts for "investment advice." It's a vicious circle.
Good investing,
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
(See Parts 1 and 2 of this white paper by searching this web site by Author's Name for ‘Steve Sjuggerud.’)

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud is editor of the Investment U newsletter and serves as Chairman of Investment U and the Oxford Club's Investment University. He helps people become better investors with actionable stock market investment advice they can put to use to build their portfolios.