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The third group are
'professional landlords' These 'buy to let' specialists make a living from purchasing property and renting it out to cover
mortgage. The difference between
mortgage costs and
rent is their profit. As an extra sweetener, if judged correctly, a pro landlord can sell a property and make a large capital gain, usually with good tax breaks. Anecdotal evidence collected by www.mortgagedown.com suggests a lot of selling activity from pro landlords around about 2002 to 2003, as they used good business sense to determine that property prices had climbed vertically to a point where only a crazy gambler would still hang on and 'let it ride'. The ones that exited are already in cash, and so looking forward to a crash, as it provides an opportunity to pick up new property at 'yields' that will make them instant monthly profits AND
chance for rapid capital growth sometime over
next 10 years. The ones that didn't exit are in
business for yield, and so
actual nominal price of their properties is of no real consequence to them (unless they are forced to sell up for health reasons etc). As you can plainly see,
pro landlord group WANT a crash - it's a new buying opportunity, unlike
current situation where flat or even negative yields prohibit
prudent landlord from expanding their portfolios.
Who is left? Two more groups. The fourth group is
amateur landlord,
'BTL newbie'. Sniffing
scent of easy money, this crowd jumped onto
buy-to-let gravy train far too late in
boom, or thru inexperience or downright lack of aptitude for
game bought at ludicrous overvaluations, meaning their 'investments' had to be subsidized, and HAD to appreciate in value in order to justify
cost. Allegedly,
pro landlords sold to this group, often utilizing
service of 'Become a Property Millionaire' type seminar companies to suck in
gullible and get them to sign on
dotted line as well as contribute a few thousand for
privilege!. Anyone who bought a 'spare' property within
last 2 or 3 years falls into this group, and will be hurting badly by now. A crash will most likely wipe them out as they face decades of subsidizing tenants just for
chance to get their money back, plus all
hassle that goes with being a landlord (leaky roofs, service charges etc etc etc).
The fifth and last group are
recent first time buyers who panicked and bought within
last 2 or 3 years despite
obvious housing bubble that had already formed. Whether thru fear or greed, they jumped on board
housing train just before it derailed, and they will also get badly hurt in
crash.
This means, of course, that 3 out of 5 groups either don't care about a crash, or actively want one. As they comprise over 80% of
population, it is therefore brutally apparent that
present 'perfect storm' house price crash currently building up is, in fact, in
interests of
majority of
population! Only a small number of recent buyers with no common sense, a small pack of greedy 'wannabe landlords' and those who released insane amounts of equity from their homes to buy plasma TVs and fancy holidays will actually get hurt. Me? I'll be buying a house or 2 probably around 2006, when
yield indicates it's no longer a silly purchase. Markets always find a way to punish
most inept, and
housing market is, after all is said and done, a market.

Peter Parsons writes house price articles for www.mortgagedown.com , the place to get advice on how to lower your mortgage