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The best gift that investors could receive now a day is gift of confidence. They need confidence that system is working for, not against them. A flash in pan isn't going to make that confidence a reality. It's great to see that market still has ability to post a solid week, but it isn't enough.
Obviously Bush administration realizes this as members parachuted over airwaves this weekend working like Santa's elves on eve of Christmas. It is unlikely that their talkfest did much to soothe nerves, but it does plant seeds. So perhaps real gift of week in general is something akin to works of John Chapman - also known as Johnny Appleseed.
The gift of last week could wind up being a seedling, a small piece of life that could germinate and grow, if watered and protected properly. It wasn't an ark, but instead could grow into a lifeboat for investors. I brought up question of whether last week was just a natural occurrence. If so its continuation isn't preordained or certain. Most seeds in nature don't grow to be giant trees. They have many natural enemies and impediments. The least of which is a bear sharpening its claws or searching for fulfillment.
I enjoyed last week's action and saw it as a gift because it helped to establish parameters that will allow us to analyze and plot week ahead. Ironically, best gift investors could receive in days ahead is for market to test last week's lows and rebound. As it stands now I'd say that majority of investors shunned last week's gift.
Return to sender was rubberstamp most employed as market was rallying. But everyone likes to be wooed, so if gifts keep coming then sentiment could improve. The risky part for market is that sentiment improves too fast. That is because with improving sentiment comes higher expectations. It is too early for investors to expect anything except worst. When they look at that Shetland pony, they have to see a Trojan horse.
This doesn't have to go on and on forever, but just a little while longer. The majority of talking heads on television these days are telling investors "we are at or close to bottom". I've felt that way for a few months, but feel stupid saying it. "Close" to bottom could be days or months from here (I'm still calling for a substantial fourth quarter rally) and I wish I could be more precise. I don't want to be on tube a year from now bragging like bears that got it wrong for a decade, and are now acting like superior market players.
Folks, best gift you can give yourself now is to view market with open eyes, know that it will shift, and stay upbeat about future possibilities and is hedged for current risk.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS I think time to really consider market as a long-term investment may come after a few more public arrests occur and Dow doesn't rally for 500 points.
We're close folks.
The two biggest dates on calendar will be August 14th when largest of public companies will began new procedure of CEO's personally signing off on financials. And biggest day of year in terms of anticipation may be September 11th, one- year anniversary.
I feel a little like Laocoon, warning citizens of Troy not to bring that horse into city. Telling them not to lower their guards and not to rip down walls that have protected them.
The market has to be tested before worst is over, and that test wasn't last week.
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