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The best gift that investors could receive now a day is
gift of confidence. They need confidence that
system is working for, not against them. A flash in
pan isn't going to make that confidence a reality. It's great to see that
market still has
ability to post a solid week, but it isn't enough.
Obviously
Bush administration realizes this as members parachuted over
airwaves this weekend working like Santa's elves on
eve of Christmas. It is unlikely that their talkfest did much to soothe nerves, but it does plant seeds. So perhaps
real gift of
week in general is something akin to
works of John Chapman - also known as Johnny Appleseed.
The gift of last week could wind up being a seedling, a small piece of life that could germinate and grow, if watered and protected properly. It wasn't an ark, but instead could grow into a lifeboat for investors. I brought up
question of whether last week was just a natural occurrence. If so its continuation isn't preordained or certain. Most seeds in nature don't grow to be giant trees. They have many natural enemies and impediments. The least of which is a bear sharpening its claws or searching for fulfillment.
I enjoyed last week's action and saw it as a gift because it helped to establish parameters that will allow us to analyze and plot
week ahead. Ironically,
best gift investors could receive in
days ahead is for
market to test last week's lows and rebound. As it stands now I'd say that
majority of investors shunned last week's gift.
Return to sender was
rubberstamp most employed as
market was rallying. But everyone likes to be wooed, so if
gifts keep coming then sentiment could improve. The risky part for
market is that sentiment improves too fast. That is because with improving sentiment comes higher expectations. It is too early for investors to expect anything except
worst. When they look at that Shetland pony, they have to see a Trojan horse.
This doesn't have to go on and on forever, but just a little while longer. The majority of talking heads on television these days are telling investors "we are at or close to
bottom". I've felt that way for a few months, but feel stupid saying it. "Close" to
bottom could be days or months from here (I'm still calling for a substantial fourth quarter rally) and I wish I could be more precise. I don't want to be on
tube a year from now bragging like
bears that got it wrong for a decade, and are now acting like superior market players.
Folks,
best gift you can give yourself now is to view
market with open eyes, know that it will shift, and stay upbeat about future possibilities and is hedged for current risk.
FINAL THOUGHTS AND OBSERVATIONS I think
time to really consider
market as a long-term investment may come after a few more public arrests occur and
Dow doesn't rally for 500 points.
We're close folks.
The two biggest dates on
calendar will be August 14th when
largest of public companies will began
new procedure of CEO's personally signing off on financials. And
biggest day of
year in terms of anticipation may be September 11th,
one- year anniversary.
I feel a little like Laocoon, warning
citizens of Troy not to bring that horse into city. Telling them not to lower their guards and not to rip down
walls that have protected them.
The market has to be tested before
worst is over, and that test wasn't last week.

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Since 1991, Charles Paynes' Wall Street Strategies has successfully provided timely and effective equity advice to institutional money managers, retail brokers and individual investors of all types, and has thousands of subscribers from hundreds of brokerage firms. http://www.wstreet.com.