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Market gurus, financial astrology, divination. Joseph Granville, a market technician, started his newsletter (Gransville Market Letter) in 1963 and is still going strong at age 80 . He was accurate to predict market decline in 1976 but was wrong in 1982 and 1995. Given statistical nature of investing, he had his successful calls and his fair share of blunders as well. The redeeming feature of this man must be his willingness to apologize for his mistakes.
Why do people continue to subscribe to his newsletter? This author suspects that his loyal customers are those who can form their own opinions and views on market but, they are receptive to a different perspective or viewpoint they may have missed in their own analyzes.
It is same with other reputable market gurus. It seemed media and public are intolerant of their success rates as being not good enough. The forecasts of these market gurus should be treated like a tsunami early warning system. Nine times out of ten, warning turns out to be false and people accept it and go own with their normal lives. Every warning is taken seriously and costs of taking precautions are minimal. When a warning turns out to be accurate, it will save lives. It should be same with these market gurus’ predictions of market crashes. Investors just have to prepare themselves as they would with an impending tsunami warning.
After seeing a BBC program on Membrane theory, 11-dimensional worlds and parallel universes, financial astrology, feng-shui and other methods of divination may have some merit. This author encourages investors to have open-minds and more importantly, understand strengths and weaknesses of any method. By capitalizing on strengths, one can indeed enjoy benefits.
The concluding part 2 will provide an outline of fundamental analysis, technical analysis plus some tips on successful investing.
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The author, Stan Seecrets, is a veteran software developer with 25 years experience at (http://www.seecrets.biz) which specializes in protecting digital assets. He has developed real-time prices delivery systems and has witnessed stock markets collapse of 1987 and 2000/2001 in real-time. © Copyright 2005, All rights reserved.