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To breakeven on a US$100 taxable investment, you must earn US$10 in interest. State and Federal income taxes reduce your profit to US$6 for
year. The US$106 will buy
same amount of goods and services, as did
US$100 a year earlier. That will be an actual breakeven, not a profitable investment.
Many limited-risk cash investments do not meet
breakeven test. U.S. Passbook Bank Account interest rates are a prime example of an annual losing investment strategy against inflation and taxes.
Cash is a Position and a Good Measure of Risk/Reward
What you can earn with limited risk cash investments is a good guide to what ROI you should expect from high-risk investments. Here are a few current examples of limited risk cash positions.
1. Cash invested in a 401k Retirement Plan. It's in mutual funds operated by a major U.S. Insurance Company. The ROI is subject to deferred taxes. Current annual ROI is 22%
2. U.S. Dollar accounts in European Banks are paying between 11% and 15%. All these banks survived
1929 Crash and, later,
10,000+ bank failures of 1932.
3. Short selling OTCBB stocks has paid about a 32% tax free ROI for
past decade. With a 98+% failure rate of OTCBB companies, there is less than a 2% risk of failure in such short sales. And there are ways to mitigate that risk to well under 2% risk. The potential reward is 100% and usually takes less than three years to achieve. However, you do need a significant cash reserve position to begin this investment game.
4. California Real Estate has shown a consistent 20% annual appreciation for
past several years. When you put 20% down on a property, your annual ROI is 100%.
The GVIC ROI
The Global Village Investment Club (GVIC) risk is less than that of OTCBB short selling. If you assume
GVIC member's profit is taken in 5.5 years,
ROI is 100%/year.
Risk/Reward
You can usually determine
risk of any investment by knowing
failure rate of firms in that industry. Conservative investments like municipal bonds have low annual failure rates. Speculative Investments, like commodities and futures trading, have high failure rates. Once you know
risk, you must adjust
reward by inflation and taxes to find
breakeven point for
investment.
Many conservative investments are bad investments. Most high-risk investments are bad investments. If more investors viewed ROI as a favorable Risk/Reward ratio, there would be fewer wealthy people dying broke. And, there would be far fewer middle income people making terrible "bets" on
stock markets.
To contact
author: Visit
Beowulf Investments website: [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] Or, visit
Global Village Investment Club Website: [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]

He has been the Managing Director of Beowulf Investments [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/] since 1981 and is the Executive Director of the Global Village Investment Club [http://home.earthlink.net/~beowulfinvestments/globalvillageinvestmentclubwelcome/]