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How can you tell if
track is in real time if they lie about it being in real time? This is not always easy but there are some basic tell tale signs. If it is a short term system that risks very little and trades often, say 10-50 times per month. Yet it has an 80-90% trade success ratio, which is almost impossible statistically. Most day traders and position traders are doing well if they are winning 40-50% of
time. If they risk more and do not use tight stops, then
win loss ratio goes up but
size of
drawdowns or
size of
largest loss has to go up. Longer term trader may have a slightly better win loss ratio but only if their risk is also larger. To make a general statement,
larger
win loss ratio is
more I would be skeptical.
What if
track record is a combination of partly historically back tested signals and partly real time signals. How should I analyze that? The first thing to look at is if
win loss ratio has changed dramatically over
track record time period. For example, if it is a 5 year time period, and
promoter claims that
trade signals went live 2 years ago yet
win loss ratio changed dramatically only 6 months ago, beware. The hardest thing to detect on
web is when you’re being conned about a hypothetical track record because there is no real way to tell when a web sites track record was edited deleted or revised. Some web sites use an independent tracking site but there are no real ways for a consumer to know other than that.
I hope that
previous ideas will help to determine fact from fiction in
world of investment newsletter promotions.

John McKeon Rye, NH info@buypanic.com http://www.buypanic.com private placement fund manager and owner of buypanic.com, an investment newsletter