Perhaps it is fair to say that if people are going to spend on plastic, they should be helping charitable organisations on way and should they feel inclined to contribute to a political institution, donating a small % of each transaction is a convenient method. If most consumers were ethical spenders, then associations between transactions and third party beneficiaries would inherit this quality, but as debt spirals out of control, is it responsible or ethical that someone should benefit at cost of someone else?

Although it is standard for most card providers to offer an introductory free period, consumer may be hit by a more substantial annual percentage rate (APR) later on year, with some providers, such as ASDA charging a massive APR of 28.8%. Even ActionAid charges an APR of 17.9%, rescuing developing world at expense of developed.

The scramble for good life has created unmanageable environmental problems from Amazon to Yangtze. It has created mass movements of people from countryside to cities. The demand for resources is an underpinning cause of conflict from water issues in Middle East to land issues in Africa. And, it's reason that Americans are paying higher prices at fuel pump.

A good example of increasing demand for oil is People's Republic of China. They are now third largest oil consumer, behind U.S. and Japan. In recent years, China has been undergoing a process of industrialization and is one of fastest growing economies in world. With real gross domestic product growing at a rate of 7% a year, China requires increasing amounts of oil to sustain its economic development. Its oil consumption grows by 7.5% per year, seven times faster than U.S. This model is repeated with lower growth numbers for countries from India to Taiwan. Without a Recession, demand for oil will continue to grow at least at present rates into foreseeable future.

The demand for oil exceeds long-term oil supply. Nearly 2/3rds of world's known oil reserves are found in 5 countries on Persian Gulf: Saudi-Arabia (25%), United Arab Emirates (10%), Kuwait (9%), Iran (9%) and Iraq (10%). There is little prospect of finding massive new oil reserves. Most petroleum experts believe that known oil reserves will decline from present levels. Thus, OPEC has little incentive to increase short-term production to offset sustained global demand for oil. The oil OPEC sells is unlikely to be replaced with new reserves.

Fifty-dollar oil means more than three-dollar gas prices at pump. Farmers need oil to produce crops. The goods we purchase must be moved to stores by trucks that require diesel. Higher oil prices means a higher inflation rate. A good rule of thumb to find real inflation rate is to take Government's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and multiply by two. The reason is CPI, like most Government statistics is heavily weighted to create a positive public perception of economy. The doubled CPI gives you approximate real inflation rate for year. For years, CPI has hovered around 3%/year. Most of business and financial community assumed a six- percent real inflation rate. Currently, U.S. Department of Labor projects a 4.5% CPI for 2005. This would mean a real inflation rate of 9%.

A fifty- percent increase in inflation means a thirty three percent reduction in buying, until buyers get a fifty percent increase in their incomes. Reduced buying means layoffs and a Recession. So salary increases are unlikely and thus a Recession is logical outcome of fifty-dollar oil.

The American economy drives world economy. An American Recession means a World Recession. In my opinion, that recession will be evident within next year or so. Be prepared for economic stress between 2006 and 2008 and probably longer. On positive side, American government will eventually regain control of Economic Illusion and we will eventually find ourselves comfortably wrapped in an illusionary security blanket. At least until American Illusion hits more reality bumps on yellow brick road.