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To catch up, you need a quick five-year annualized return more like 23%. Today’s SPX would have to reach 3200 to meet that goal – and all-time high is only 1552. Plus you have to exercise perfect discipline and never try to time market swings yourself. Fat chance.
Dollar-cost-averaging in your IRA or 401K (buying more index fund shares every month) might smooth out bumps, but fundamental problem remains.
Since I took over my own portfolio full-time in 1998, I did two important things right (and dozens and dozens of things wrong, fewer each year I hope): I took advantage of fat years in 1999 and 2003 to rack up 150% and 99% returns. And my net returns for all other years were flat. Up or down a few percent, but no big annual losses. Ever. When markets went into freefall, I stayed mostly with value stocks and survived.
Let me shout to get your attention – FOR LONG-TERM RETURNS THAT REALLY MAKE YOU WEALTHY, YOU HAVE TO BEAT THE MARKETS YEAR IN AND YEAR OUT. Not just match what rest of herd gets.
You have to do what experts say can’t be done. Of course, if you listen carefully you find that they are really saying that most managers and individual investors DON’T beat market, not that it can’t be done.
Hundreds of millions of people invest in stocks worldwide. If only a relative handful ever do better than markets, that’s still several million. No reason you can’t be one of them.
All it takes is curiosity. And time. And effort.
You have to be curious enough to go looking for best stocks, best funds or best manager you can find to manage your retirement portfolio. You have to read more than headlines in financial press, and have some idea where broad market trends are going.
Most of all, you have to accept that in your lifetime, market may not just hand you a fat return for nothing. You will have to earn it. The good news is that there is always a way to do better.
If you don’t fall behind curve.
Dale Baker, co-editor at http://www.howtotradestocks.com, is a private portfolio manager with international clients invested in the US markets. His “50% Gains Investing” thread on SI dates back to 1997, including a model portfolio with a 400% overall return since inception.
Dale consulted on tech stock funds from 1999-2001 and currently offers his advising services to private clients on a limited basis.