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So many money managers tried to cut corners and change tenants of their funds and missions. So many frugal individual investors became undisciplined, quick-buck artists, and all paid a price. Conventional thinking was turned on its head during 90s and now it will have to be turned again. I don’t think we have to do a complete 360-degree turn, but unrealistic attitude among investors is also playing a role in emotional heartbreaks. I don’t think we will ever buy and hold forever, again; by same token, I don’t think we can buy stocks same way we roll dices.
Focus Group of Week Insurance (property and casual)
The insurance industry has been quietly yielding a lot of ground and is beginning to look very intriguing. These stocks made fantastic rebounds after post 9-11 nosedive. However, that initial euphoric ride has come to a halt and now there are questions or dilemmas that must be answered before Street has nerve to upgrade sector. Perhaps biggest question mark is how much government support will be provided for terrorism insurance. This is a major sticking point as pointed out in a column in Chicago Tribune. Before September 11th, costliest terrorist act on planet was $907 million for attack on Nat West in London in 1993. So far, running tab for 9-11 is $40 billion! Even costliest natural disaster, Hurricane Andrew, has only added up to $19.6 billion in 2002 dollars. (For record, Oklahoma attack cost $125 million and first WTC attack amounted to $725 million.) The House passed a bill for government to pay 90% of cost related to future terrorist attacks. Currently, Senate’s version has government picking up 90% after industry pays $10 billion. It seems apparent that government help is guaranteed, obviously House bill is more attractive to industry, but in either case once this is resolved on Capitol Hill, I think, sector will turn it around.
The insurance index, IUX suggest that there will be a major breakout through 300.
A good way to measure pulse of industry is to keep an eye on AIG. The company has been on high spin for a couple of weeks now; this suggests that long anticipated retirement of Moe Greenberg is around corner. If, and when that happens, stock will come under some knee-jerk pressure, if it can hold its own I think that will be a bold statement for entire sector. By way, while there is talk of dirty bombs and subsequent terrorist attacks, truth is that insurance companies have been able to use hysteria to raise rates exponentially.
Our picks in group include Progressive (PGR), Allstate (ALL), and Ambac Financial Group (ABK). If bottom fishing were your game, we’d use recent earnings warning-induced weakness in St. Paul (SPC) as an opportunity to begin building a position.
Progressive Corp (PGR) $56.30 Aside from company’s charismatic founder this company has really stayed ahead of curve and lived up to its namesake. That is one of reasons stock continues to outperform industry. Even with its great chart, stock is trailing below industry average PE of 29. Its price to sales ratio is 1.62 versus 2.62 for industry. The company has also enjoyed very steady sequential growth. The stock acts like its extended short-term, but long-term outlook is fabulous and we think stock is a buy at any price below $60.00. Our year-end target is $75 and twelve-month target is $90.00.
Allstate (ALL) $37.00 In April, WSJ wrote a report on how company could save money by working with retailers on replacement parts as opposed to sending out claims checks. I’m not sure if company feels skittish about taking advise from a newspaper, but it underscores fact that there are ways for insurance companies to derive additional revenues. Though company warned and lowered guidance in February, they have since confirmed current guidance. Yet, stock is still in a downward trajectory and may have to test 200-day moving average around $35.00 before turning. Another area to look to buy stock is with a close above $39.00. In meantime, it’s trading at a PE lower than industry, a price to sales ratio of 0.90 versus 2.62 and a price to book of 1.50 versus 2.30.
Ambac Financial Group (ABK) $66.50 This is a hybrid company as they also provide investment services, interest rate swaps and cash management services among other non-insurance businesses. That said, this is clear momentum champ in space and we all know that new highs begat new highs. The stock is trading what looks like a real low trailing PE of 16 versus industry average 29, but five-year range for company has seen highest PE at 18.6 so this could be a problem. However, stock looks like it has room to $70.00 and a breakout from there should land stock north of $75.00.
Since 1991, Charles Paynes' Wall Street Strategies has successfully provided timely and effective equity advice to institutional money managers, retail brokers and individual investors of all types, and has thousands of subscribers from hundreds of brokerage firms. Via its website, http://www.wstreet.com Wall Street Strategies now provides research online, including enhanced services and online communication tailored to today’s fast-moving markets.