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For each date and condition, compounded annual return rates were computed from 1950 to 2005. [Editorial note: compounded annual return rate is
accepted yardstick for comparing investment performance. Of course, coins do not grow at a guaranteed uniform rate, such as bonds do, but if a coin is purchased at a certain price, and that price is compared with
value of
coin at some later date,
compounded annual return rate can be calculated for
time period in between]. Return rate computations were made from 1980 to 2005, 1995 to 2005, and 2000 to 2005. For each Morgan dollar,
data was placed in tabular format.
Next, I calculated a “composite” score for each date by averaging all
compounded return rates computed for that date. Continuing on with
example above,
“composite” score for
1889-CC is 9.14. I then ranked all
“composite” scores. The Morgan silver dollars with
highest scores are as follows:
Date: Score: 1895 11.37 1892-CC 10.54 1894 10.43 1878-CC 10.28 1883-CC 10.25
So, it would appear, based on past performance over a period of 55 years,
1895 is
Morgan silver dollar with
best hope of appreciating significantly in
years ahead, followed by
1892-CC, 1894, 1878-CC, and 1883-CC. Not surprisingly, dollars of
Carson City Mint occupy 13 of
top 16 positions, thanks to persistent collectors scrambling for bona fide artifacts of
romantic American West. On
opposite end of
rankings, Morgan silver dollars having
bleakest long term prospects include
1898, 1899-O, 1884, and
1888-O, followed by
1897 coming in dead last with a score of 2.66.
Anyone whose dual objective is to acquire Morgan silver dollars with a bullish future ought to begin looking at
“Top Five” above. Purchase coins in
best condition you can afford, but be sure
coins are clean, problem-free, and CERTIFIED by a reputable grading service. Be prepared to hold for at least five years. Morgan dollars have skyrocketed in value in
last three years, so some cooling off may be in order before
next upward cycle.
If a polling firm were to survey
population of US coin collectors, it is very possible that Morgan silver dollars would win
vote as
most appealing coin in American coinage history. These beautiful coins have been
heartbeat of
hobby for many years, with no retreat in sight. Ironically, these same coins spent
better part of a century hidden away in government vaults, unseen, unwanted, and unloved. My, how times have changed!

Author Daniel J. Goevert is the webmaster of US Coin Values Advisor (http://www.us-coin-values-advisor.com), specializing in coin value trends and listing bullish US coins. Other offerings include detailed coin collecting advice as well as an illustrated history of the United States and the US Mint.